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John G. Dwyer, Michela Biasutti, and Adam H. Sobel

and Sobel 2009 ; Sobel and Camargo 2011 ; Seth et al. 2011 ; Dwyer et al. 2012 ). Models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5; Taylor et al. 2012 ) show changes of the same sign, as we discuss in section 3 and as documented elsewhere ( Biasutti 2013 ; Seth et al. 2013 ; Huang et al. 2013 ). These CMIP3 and CMIP5 studies suggest a variety of causes to explain the projected changes in the annual cycle, including high-latitude phase delays due to reduced sea ice affecting the tropics; changes in the

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Zewdu T. Segele, Michael B. Richman, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

. A. , D. E. Parker , E. B. Horton , C. K. Folland , L. V. Alexander , D. P. Rowell , E. C. Kent , and A. Kaplan , 2003 : Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407 , doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 . Riddle , E. E. , and K. H. Cook , 2008 : Abrupt rainfall transitions over the Greater Horn of Africa: Observations and regional model simulations . J. Geophys. Res

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Lisa Hannak, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anke Kniffka, and Gregor Pante

). Here we use 20-yr climate simulations covering the period 1991–2010. All models use weekly SSTs and sea ice concentrations based on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation V2 product ( Reynolds et al. 2002 ) as lower boundary conditions and prescribed aerosols. Despite different native resolutions, output was archived every 6 h on a standard horizontal (2.5° × 2.5°) grid with 22 vertical pressure levels (nine below 700 hPa). Unfortunately only eight of the YoTC models provide all the output necessary for

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Thomas Engel, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Gregor Pante, and Jan Bliefernicht

TRMM radar data (e.g., Gosset et al. 2013 ; Pfeifroth et al. 2016 ). The period used in the present study is 1983–2014. 3. Methods a. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics Both Ouagadougou and Dakar are located in the Sahel, a region stretching between about 12° and 18°N from the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea (see Fig. 1a ). This area is characterized by the transition from the arid conditions of the Sahara with less than 200 mm rainfall per year to a more humid climate equatorward. The West African

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Susan Stillman, Xubin Zeng, and Michael G. Bosilovich

:// ). Several of the datasets used in this analysis were obtained from the following archives: NCAR Computational and Information Systems Laboratory; Barcelona Expert Center; DOE Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; University of California, Irvine, Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing; NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory; National Snow and Ice Data Center; NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center; and Earth Online. We

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