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Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, and Samuel Degelia

troposphere, the verification is done by employing the GSI capability, typically used for four-dimensional DA, to compare model forecasts to observations at different times by interpolating hourly model forecast output to the time of each observation. The root-mean-square error (RMSE; solid) and ensemble spread 2 (dashed) of temperature, water vapor, and wind (components) for soundings launched at approximately 3-h intervals are shown in Fig. 8 . While temperature and wind generally show good

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Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

ensemble physics configurations for (a) temperature at 0000 UTC day 1 (i.e., 11-h forecast), (b) temperature at 1200 UTC day 1 (i.e., 23-h forecast), (c) water vapor mixing ratio at 0000 UTC day 1, (d) water vapor mixing ratio at 1200 UTC day 1, (e) U - and V -wind components at 0000 UTC day 1, and (f) U - and V -wind components at 1200 UTC day 1. The NWS soundings are also used to evaluate the differences among the deterministic forecasts with different PBL schemes ( Fig. 14 ). None of the PBL

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