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Christian Barthlott and Corinna Hoose

1. Introduction Aerosol–cloud interactions are one of the most uncertain processes in numerical weather prediction models. This is reflected by the increasing number of studies investigating aerosol–cloud interactions in the last few years, including a number of review papers that summarized past efforts and results (e.g., Tao et al. 2012 ; Altaratz et al. 2014 ; Fan et al. 2016 ). How aerosols affect clouds and precipitation strongly varies between cloud types that are controlled mainly by

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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

-scale flow, in particular errors related to latent heat release. Accordingly, an adequate representation of WCBs could reduce systematic forecast errors in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale flow. The only study so far toward a systematic evaluation of WCBs is provided by Madonna et al. (2015) , who investigated operational medium-range European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) forecasts for the three Northern Hemisphere winters of 2002/03, 2006

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