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Ricardo Martins Campos, Vladimir Krasnopolsky, Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves, and Stephen G. Penny

1. Introduction The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have produced atmospheric forecasts using ensembles since 1992 and wave ensembles since 2005. Kalnay (2003) describes the two main advantages of using ensemble forecasts: the ensemble members tend to smooth out uncertain components, which lead to better skill than single deterministic forecasts; and the spread of the ensemble members provides an estimation of the uncertainty. The mean of the ensemble members is

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