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Michael Goss, Steven B. Feldstein, and Sukyoung Lee

wave propagation into the stratosphere, altering the stratospheric polar vortex and influencing the Arctic Oscillation [AO; or, alternatively, the lower-tropospheric realization of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM)]. The role of the climatological stationary wave in modulating this process is discussed in Smith et al. (2011) , where it is argued that planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere strongly depends on the presence of constructive interference with the stationary wave. Other recent

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Hyo-Seok Park, Sukyoung Lee, Seok-Woo Son, Steven B. Feldstein, and Yu Kosaka

, M. A. Granskog , O. Pavlova , A. H. H. Renner , J. Haapala , T. B. Løyning , and M. Tschudi , 2013 : Thinning of Arctic sea ice observed in Fram Strait: 1990–2011 . J. Geophys. Res. Oceans , 118 , 5202 – 5221 , doi: 10.1002/jgrc.20393 . Henderson , G. R. , B. S. Barrett , and D. M. Lafleur , 2014 : Arctic sea ice and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) . Climate Dyn. , 43 , 2185 – 2196 , doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-2043-y . Holland , M. M. , C. M. Bitz , and B

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Robert A. Tomas, Clara Deser, and Lantao Sun

1. Introduction One of the most visible consequences of human-induced climate change is the melting of sea ice in the Arctic. Climate models project an almost complete loss of perennial Arctic sea ice cover by the end of this century or sooner if current rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue. The disappearance of sea ice will profoundly alter the surface energy balance of the Arctic Ocean as the highly reflective ice cover is replaced by darker open water (e.g., Serreze and Barry 2011

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Bradford S. Barrett, Gina R. Henderson, and Joshua S. Werling

affect the polarity of the Arctic Oscillation ( Zhou and Miller 2005 ; L’Heureux and Higgins 2008 ), the North Atlantic Oscillation ( Cassou 2008 ; Lin et al. 2009 ), and the Pacific–North America pattern ( Mori and Watanabe 2008 ; Lin et al. 2009 ; Johnson and Feldstein 2010 ; Adames and Wallace 2014 ; Bao and Hartmann 2014 ). Via its modulation of large-scale circulation, the MJO’s influence has already been found to extend to Arctic sea ice ( Henderson et al. 2014 ). The primary pathway for

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Xiaojun Yuan, Michael R. Kaplan, and Mark A. Cane

cryosphere observations, enhanced atmospheric data assimilation, and improved climate models. Emerging studies suggest that tropical climate variability at other (“non ENSO”) time scales also reaches the polar regions. For example, tropical variability on an intraseasonal time scale, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), impacts extratropical regions as far as the high-latitude Arctic ( Yoo et al. 2011 ). At multidecadal (or long-term trend) time scales, tropical Pacific SST variability and

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Changhyun Yoo, Sungsu Park, Daehyun Kim, Jin-Ho Yoon, and Hye-Mi Kim

global impact on weather and climate through its teleconnections ( Kim et al. 2006 ; Zhang 2013 ). For example, the MJO modulates the Northern Hemisphere climate modes, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO; L’Heureux and Higgins 2008 ), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Cassou 2008 ; Lin et al. 2009 ; Riddle et al. 2013 ), and the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern (PNA; Mori and Watanabe 2008 ; Johnson and Feldstein 2010 ; Riddle et al. 2013 ). Through changes in large

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N. Fauchereau, B. Pohl, and A. Lorrey

, leading to potential predictability of regional climate anomalies (temperature and precipitation) beyond meteorological time scales. Similarly, Riddle et al. (2012) showed that, over the North American region, several WRs resembled linear combinations of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, and these were significantly modulated by the MJO. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), several studies have demonstrated that the MJO is related to significant regional impacts

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Aaron B. Wilson, David H. Bromwich, and Keith M. Hines

variability and connection to the underlying synoptic activity of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas Low . J. Geophys. Res. , 117 , D07111 , doi: 10.1029/2011JD017337 . Fyfe , J. C. , G. J. Boer , and G. M. Flato , 1999 : The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 26 , 1601 – 1604 , doi: 10.1029/1999GL900317 . Gallego , D. , P. Ribera , R. Garcia-Herrera , E. Hernandez , and L. Gimeno , 2005 : A new look for

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Xichen Li, David M. Holland, Edwin P. Gerber, and Changhyun Yoo

Pacific exhibits a mild cooling trend, with the basin-scale temperature changing by about ~0.2 K (from 1979 to 2012; see Fig. 1 ). The western Pacific shows a warming trend of about 0.3 K ( Fig. 1 ). In the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the average SST shows a stronger warming of about ~0.5 K. This warming trend is related to both global warming and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO; Schlesinger and Ramankutty 1994 ; Knight et al. 2005 ). Over the Indian Ocean, the SST pattern shows a widely

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