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Wanli Wu, Amanda H. Lynch, Sheldon Drobot, James Maslanik, A. David McGuire, and Ute Herzfeld

Grell deep convective parameterization ( Grell et al. 1994 ), the Medium-Range Forecasting (MRF) planetary boundary layer scheme ( Hong and Pan 1996 ), and the Reisner explicit cloud microphysics parameterization ( Reisner et al. 1998 ). This latter parameterization predicts the mixing ratio of cloud water and ice crystals as well as the rain and snow water mixing ratios. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM; Mlawer et al. 1997 ) is chosen for longwave radiation, and the delta

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Ute C. Herzfeld, Sheldon Drobot, Wanli Wu, Charles Fowler, and James Maslanik

principles as well as options for handling missing data values and integrating boundaries of geographic areas. Standardization is necessary, wherever data from different sources or variables of different units are to be analyzed synoptically, as is the case in the WALE modeling and analysis project ( http://wale.unh.edu/data.shtml ). In our application, we use linear transformation of the range of data into the interval [0,1], and all calculations are performed inside a landmask outlining the study area

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T. Scott Rupp, Xi Chen, Mark Olson, and A. David McGuire

annual burning of 5–15 Mha of boreal forest ( Stocks et al. 2002 ; Lavorel et al. 2005 ; Flannigan et al. 2006 ). Current estimates are that an average of 2.3 Mha burn annually across the North American boreal forest, with the amount of annual area burned ranging between 0.5 and 8 Mha ( Amiro et al. 2001 ; Kasischke et al. 2006 ; Csiszar et al. 2004 ), and there is a growing awareness of the importance and vulnerability of the region to forecast climatic change ( Weber and Flannigan 1997

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A. D. McGuire, J. E. Walsh, J. S. Kimball, J. S. Clein, S. E. Euskirchen, S. Drobot, U. C. Herzfeld, J. Maslanik, R. B. Lammers, M. A. Rawlins, C. J. Vorosmarty, T. S. Rupp, W. Wu, and M. Calef

region during the last two decades of the twentieth century. The boundaries of the western Arctic in this study completely encompass the drainage basin of the Yukon River, and the region includes most of Alaska and adjacent areas in northwestern Canada. The region includes two long-term ecological research (LTER) sites: one that is focused on tundra ecosystems (Toolik Lake LTER; Hobbie et al. 1994 ) and another that is focused on boreal forest ecosystems (Bonanza Creek LTER; Chapin et al. 2006

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J. S. Kimball, M. Zhao, A. D. McGuire, F. A. Heinsch, J. Clein, M. Calef, W. M. Jolly, S. Kang, S. E. Euskirchen, K. C. McDonald, and S. W. Running

1. Introduction Boreal forest and arctic tundra biomes of the northern high latitudes (>40°N) are currently undergoing significant changes coinciding with recent and persistent climatic warming ( Serreze et al. 2000 ; Comiso 2003 ). Terrestrial ecosystem responses to the warming trend include thawing permafrost and deepening soil active layer depths ( Oelke et al. 2004 ), advances in the timing and length of seasonal growing seasons ( Myneni et al. 1997a ; McDonald et al. 2004 ), changes in

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