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Tobias Selz, Lotte Bierdel, and George C. Craig

prediction, including error growth ( Lorenz 1969 ; Durran and Gingrich 2014 ; Weyn and Durran 2017 ) and the accuracy of numerical forecasting systems ( Skamarock 2004 ; Frehlich and Sharman 2008 ; Ricard et al. 2013 ; Skamarock et al. 2014 ). In a seminal paper, Nastrom et al. (1984) considered KE spectra based on flight-track data taken in the course of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP), motivated in part by the expectation of a mesoscale energy gap ( Fiedler and Panofsky 1970

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Tobias Selz

: Theoretical aspects of upscale error growth on the mesoscales: Idealized numerical simulations . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 144 , 682 – 694 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3236 . 10.1002/qj.3236 Buizza , R. , and M. Leutbecher , 2015 : The forecast skill horizon . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 141 , 3366 – 3382 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2619 . 10.1002/qj.2619 Craig , G. C. , and B. G. Cohen , 2006 : Fluctuations in an equilibrium convective ensemble. Part I: Theoretical formulation

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Kirstin Kober and George C. Craig

physically based stochastic perturbations will be introduced as well as the mesoscale weather prediction model used in this study and the verifying observational data. In section 3 , the method will be applied in several case studies representing two different weather regimes to assess the structure of the perturbations, their impact on the precipitation fields, and the sensitivities in parameter settings of the perturbations scheme. Additionally, forecast quality of other variables will be assessed

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Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

( Dorrestijn et al. 2013 ) and cellular automata ( Bengtsson et al. 2013 ). In this study, we focus on a theory of convective variability based on statistical physics developed by Craig and Cohen (2006 ; the theory is hereafter abbreviated CC06). Its application in a stochastic parameterization framework ( Plant and Craig 2008 ) proved beneficial in a number of ways: it produces scale-aware fluctuations in a mesoscale model ( Keane et al. 2014 ); forecast errors grow upscale realistically, as opposed to

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Tobias Selz, Lucas Fischer, and George C. Craig

for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model is the current limited-area numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service (DWD) for operational short-range weather forecasts ( Baldauf et al. 2011 ). The operational spatial resolution of 2.8 km is used in our simulations, in which deep moist convection and the associated feedback mechanisms to the larger scales of motion are considered to be explicitly resolved. Shallow convection (nonprecipitating, depth less than 250 hPa) is still

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