Search Results

You are looking at 11 - 12 of 12 items for

  • Author or Editor: Sylvie Lorsolo x
  • Refine by Access: Content accessible to me x
Clear All Modify Search
Richard J. Krupar III
,
John L. Schroeder
,
Douglas A. Smith
,
Song-Lak Kang
, and
Sylvie Lorsolo

Abstract

A set of velocity–azimuth display (VAD) wind speed profiles derived from coastal Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) systems was paired with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) 10-m standardized mean and nonstandardized gust wind speeds measured within 10 km of nearby WSR-88Ds. The goal was to formulate an appropriate methodology and empirical relationships to estimate overland near-surface wind conditions in landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) using VAD tropical cyclone boundary layer (TCBL) lower-tropospheric wind measurements. A total of 17 TCs and seven ASOS/WSR-88D sites were used to construct a unique comparative dataset. Four estimation methods including the log and power laws, mean and gust wind speed ratio (WSR) methods, and curve fitting with linear regression and polynomial fits were evaluated. Results from the evaluation show that WSR-88D site-specific linear regression equations using a VAD 0–200-m layer average wind speed and nonzero intercepts provided the most accurate predictions of the ASOS 10-m standardized mean wind speed. Results also show that a non-site-specific linear regression model using a VAD 0–500-m mean boundary layer (MBL) wind speed and nonzero intercept is 1.07% more accurate than using a single-gust WSR to predict ASOS 10-m nonstandardized gust wind speeds. Only 2.15% of the ASOS 10-m nonstandardized maximum 3-s gust wind speeds were found to exceed the VAD 0–500-m MBL wind speed, indicating that the VAD 0–500-m MBL wind speed represents a viable source of momentum available for transport to the surface in the form of a gust.

Full access
Robert Rogers
,
Sim Aberson
,
Altug Aksoy
,
Bachir Annane
,
Michael Black
,
Joseph Cione
,
Neal Dorst
,
Jason Dunion
,
John Gamache
,
Stan Goldenberg
,
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan
,
John Kaplan
,
Bradley Klotz
,
Sylvie Lorsolo
,
Frank Marks
,
Shirley Murillo
,
Mark Powell
,
Paul Reasor
,
Kathryn Sellwood
,
Eric Uhlhorn
,
Tomislava Vukicevic
,
Jun Zhang
, and
Xuejin Zhang

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex scale to turbulence scale; improvements in statistical prediction of rapid intensification; and studies specifically targeting tropical cyclogenesis, extratropical transition, and the impact of environmental humidity on TC structure and evolution. While progress in TC intensity forecasting remains challenging, the activities described here provide some hope for improvement.

Full access