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Chung-Hsiung Sui, Xiaofan Li, Ming-Jen Yang, and Hsiao-Ling Huang

Abstract

Precipitation efficiency is estimated based on vertically integrated budgets of water vapor and clouds using hourly data from both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) cloud-resolving simulations. The 2D cloud-resolving model is forced by the vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The 3D cloud-resolving modeling is based on the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) simulation of Typhoon Nari (in 2001). The analysis of the hourly moisture and cloud budgets of the 2D simulation shows that the total moisture source (surface evaporation and vertically integrated moisture convergence) is converted into hydrometeors through vapor condensation and deposition rates regardless of the area size where the average is taken. This leads to the conclusion that the large-scale and cloud-microphysics precipitation efficiencies are statistically equivalent. Results further show that convergence (divergence) of hydrometeors would make precipitation efficiency larger (smaller). The precipitation efficiency tends to be larger (even >100%) in light rain conditions as a result of hydrometeor convergence from the neighboring atmospheric columns. Analysis of the hourly moisture and cloud budgets of the 3D results from the simulation of a typhoon system with heavy rainfall generally supports that of 2D results from the simulation of the tropical convective system with moderate rainfall intensity.

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Bin Wang, Michela Biasutti, Michael P. Byrne, Christopher Castro, Chih-Pei Chang, Kerry Cook, Rong Fu, Alice M. Grimm, Kyung-Ja Ha, Harry Hendon, Akio Kitoh, R. Krishnan, June-Yi Lee, Jianping Li, Jian Liu, Aurel Moise, Salvatore Pascale, M. K. Roxy, Anji Seth, Chung-Hsiung Sui, Andrew Turner, Song Yang, Kyung-Sook Yun, Lixia Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou

Abstract

Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset.

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