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Erik R. Nielsen, Gregory R. Herman, Robert C. Tournay, John M. Peters, and Russ S. Schumacher
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Hartmut Peters, William E. Johns, Amy S. Bower, and David M. Fratantoni

Abstract

When the salty and heavy water of the Red Sea exits from the Strait of Bab el Mandeb, it continues downslope into the Gulf of Aden mainly along two channels. The 130-km-long “Northern Channel” (NC) is topographically confined and is typically only 5 km wide. In it, the Red Sea plume shows unanticipated patterns of vertical structure, turbulent mixing, and entrainment. Above the seafloor a 25–120-m-thick weakly stratified layer shows little dilution along the channel. Hence this bottom layer undergoes only weak entrainment. In contrast, a 35–285-m-thick interfacial layer shows stronger entrainment and is shown in a companion paper to undergo vigorous turbulent mixing. It is thus the interface that exhibits the bulk of entrainment of the Red Sea plume in the NC. The interfacial layer also carries most of the overall plume transport, increasingly so with downstream distance. The “Southern Channel” (SC) is wider than the NC and is accessed from the latter by a sill about 33 m above the floor of the NC. Entrainment into the bottom layer of the SC is diagnosed to be strong near the entry into the SC such that the near-bottom density and salinity are smaller in the SC than in the NC at the same distance from Bab el Mandeb. In comparison with winter conditions, the authors encountered weaker outflow with shallower equilibration depths during the summer cruise. Bulk Froude numbers computed for the whole plume varied within the range 0.2–1. Local maxima occurred in relatively steep channel sections and coincided with locations of significant entrainment.

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John M. Peters, Christopher J. Nowotarski, Jake P. Mulholland, and Richard L. Thompson

Abstract

The relationship between storm-relative helicity (SRH) and streamwise vorticity ω s is frequently invoked to explain the often robust connections between effective inflow layer (EIL) SRH and various supercell updraft properties. However, the definition of SRH also contains storm-relative (SR) flow, and the separate influences of SR flow and ω s on updraft dynamics are therefore convolved when SRH is used as a diagnostic tool. To clarify this issue, proximity soundings and numerical experiments are used to disentangle the separate influences of EIL SR flow and ω s on supercell updraft characteristics. Our results suggest that the magnitude of EIL ω s has little influence on whether supercellular storm mode occurs. Rather, the transition from nonsupercellular to supercellular storm mode is largely modulated by the magnitude of EIL SR flow. Furthermore, many updraft attributes such as updraft width, maximum vertical velocity, vertical mass flux at all levels, and maximum vertical vorticity at all levels are largely determined by EIL SR flow. For a constant EIL SR flow, storms with large EIL ω s have stronger low-level net rotation and vertical velocities, which affirms previously established connections between ω s and tornadogenesis. EIL ω s also influences storms’ precipitation and cold-pool patterns. Vertical nonlinear dynamic pressure acceleration (NLDPA) is larger at low levels when EIL ω s is large, but differences in NLDPA aloft become uncorrelated with EIL ω s because storms’ midlevel dynamic pressure perturbations are substantially influenced by the tilting of midlevel vorticity. Our results emphasize the importance of considering EIL SR flow in addition to EIL SRH in the research and forecasting of supercell properties.

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John M. Peters, Hugh Morrison, Christopher J. Nowotarski, Jake P. Mulholland, and Richard L. Thompson

Abstract

In supercell environments, previous authors have shown strong connections between the vertical wind shear magnitude, updraft width, and entrainment. Based on these results, it is hypothesized that the influences of entrainment-driven dilution on buoyancy and maximum updraft vertical velocity w in supercell environments are a predictable function of the vertical wind shear profile. It is also hypothesized that the influences of pressure perturbation forces on maximum updraft w are small because of a nearly complete offset between upward dynamic pressure forces and downward buoyant pressure forces. To address these hypotheses, we derive a formula for the maximum updraft w that incorporates the effects of entrainment-driven dilution on buoyancy but neglects pressure gradient forces. Solutions to this formula are compared with output from previous numerical simulations. This formula substantially improves predictions of maximum updraft w over past CAPE-derived formulas for maximum updraft w, which supports the first hypothesis. Furthermore, integrated vertical accelerations along trajectories show substantial offsets between dynamic and buoyant pressure forces, supporting the second hypothesis. It is argued that the new formula should be used in addition to CAPE-derived measures for w in forecast and research applications when accurate diagnosis of updraft speed is required.

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Jake P. Mulholland, Stephen W. Nesbitt, Robert J. Trapp, and John M. Peters

Abstract

Orographic deep convection (DC) initiation and rapid evolution from supercells to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are common near the Sierras de Córdoba, Argentina, which was the focal point of the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign. This study used an idealized numerical model with elongated north–south terrain similar to that of the Sierras de Córdoba to address how variations in terrain height affected the environment and convective morphology. Simulations used a thermodynamic profile from a RELAMPAGO event that featured both supercell and MCS storm modes. Results revealed that DC initiated earlier in simulations with higher terrain, owing both to stronger upslope flows and standing mountain waves. All simulations resulted in supercell formation, with higher-terrain supercells initiating closer to the terrain peak and moving slower off the terrain. Higher-terrain simulations displayed increases in both low-level and deep-layer wind shear along the eastern slopes of the terrain that were related to the enhanced upslope flows, supporting stronger and wider supercell updrafts/downdrafts and a wider swath of heavy rainfall. Deeper and stronger cold pools from these wider and stronger higher-terrain supercells led to surging outflow that reduced convective available potential energy accessible to deep convective updrafts, resulting in quicker supercell demise off the terrain. Lower-terrain supercells moved quickly off the terrain, merged with weaker convective cells, and resulted in a quasi-organized MCS. These results demonstrate that terrain-induced flow modification may lead to substantial local variations in convective morphology.

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Amy S. Bower, William E. Johns, David M. Fratantoni, and Hartmut Peters

Abstract

Hydrographic, direct velocity, and subsurface float observations from the 2001 Red Sea Outflow Experiment (REDSOX) are analyzed to investigate the gravitational and dynamical adjustment of the Red Sea Outflow Water (RSOW) where it is injected into the open ocean in the western Gulf of Aden. During the winter REDSOX cruise, when outflow transport was large, several intermediate-depth salinity maxima (product waters) were formed from various bathymetrically confined branches of the outflow plume, ranging in depth from 400 to 800 m and in potential density from 27.0 to 27.5 σθ, a result of different mixing intensity along each branch. The outflow product waters were not dense enough to sink to the seafloor during either the summer or winter REDSOX cruises, but analysis of previous hydrographic and mooring data and results from a one-dimensional plume model suggest that they may be so during wintertime surges of strong outflow currents, or about 20% of the time during winter. Once vertically equilibrated in the Gulf of Aden, the shallowest RSOW was strongly influenced by mesoscale eddies that swept it farther into the gulf. The deeper RSOW was initially more confined by the walls of the Tadjura Rift, but eventually it escaped from the rift and was advected mainly southward along the continental slope. There was no evidence of a continuous boundary undercurrent of RSOW similar to the Mediterranean Undercurrent in the Gulf of Cadiz. This is explained by considering 1) the variability in outflow transport and 2) several different criteria for separation of a jet at a sharp corner, which indicate that the outflow currents should separate from the boundary where they are injected into the gulf.

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Hans C. Graber, Eugene A. Terray, Mark A. Donelan, William M. Drennan, John C. Van Leer, and Donald B. Peters

Abstract

This paper describes a new, compact buoy, the Air–Sea Interaction Spar (ASIS), capable of reliably and accurately measuring directional wave spectra, atmospheric surface fluxes, and radiation in the the open ocean. The ASIS buoy is a stable platform and has low flow disturbance characteristics in both atmospheric and oceanic surface boundary layers. The buoy has been deployed for sea trials in the waters off Miami, Florida; in the northeastern region of the Gulf of Mexico; and in the northwestern Mediterranean. The acquired measurements of directional wave spectra, momentum and heat fluxes, and profile data—as well as general meteorological and oceanographic parameters—obtained from the buoy are well suited for enhancing research on air–water interfacial processes, wave dynamics, remote sensing, and gas transfer. In this paper the design is described and the performance of the buoy using field data is characterized.

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Michael F. Jasinski, Jordan S. Borak, Sujay V. Kumar, David M. Mocko, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Matthew Rodell, Hualan Rui, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Bruce E. Vollmer, Kristi R. Arsenault, Bailing Li, John D. Bolten, and Natthachet Tangdamrongsub

Abstract

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980–2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125° × 0.125° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm yr−1 in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to −1 to −9 mm yr−1 in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W m−2 yr−1 in the East to −0.05 to −0.20 W m−2 yr−1 in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03 K yr−1. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days yr−1 while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W m−2 yr−1, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm yr−1 while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

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Kristi R. Arsenault, Shraddhanand Shukla, Abheera Hazra, Augusto Getirana, Amy McNally, Sujay V. Kumar, Randal D. Koster, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada Badr, Hahn Chul Jung, Bala Narapusetty, Mahdi Navari, Shugong Wang, David M. Mocko, Chris Funk, Laura Harrison, Gregory J. Husak, Alkhalil Adoum, Gideon Galu, Tamuka Magadzire, Jeanne Roningen, Michael Shaw, John Eylander, Karim Bergaoui, Rachael A. McDonnell, and James P. Verdin

Abstract

Many regions in Africa and the Middle East are vulnerable to drought and to water and food insecurity, motivating agency efforts such as the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to provide early warning of drought events in the region. Each year these warnings guide life-saving assistance that reaches millions of people. A new NASA multimodel, remote sensing–based hydrological forecasting and analysis system, NHyFAS, has been developed to support such efforts by improving the FEWS NET’s current early warning capabilities. NHyFAS derives its skill from two sources: (i) accurate initial conditions, as produced by an offline land modeling system through the application and/or assimilation of various satellite data (precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage), and (ii) meteorological forcing data during the forecast period as produced by a state-of-the-art ocean–land–atmosphere forecast system. The land modeling framework used is the Land Information System (LIS), which employs a suite of land surface models, allowing multimodel ensembles and multiple data assimilation strategies to better estimate land surface conditions. An evaluation of NHyFAS shows that its 1–5-month hindcasts successfully capture known historic drought events, and it has improved skill over benchmark-type hindcasts. The system also benefits from strong collaboration with end-user partners in Africa and the Middle East, who provide insights on strategies to formulate and communicate early warning indicators to water and food security communities. The additional lead time provided by this system will increase the speed, accuracy, and efficacy of humanitarian disaster relief, helping to save lives and livelihoods.

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