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Roberto Buizza, P. L. Houtekamer, Gerald Pellerin, Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu, and Mozheng Wei

Abstract

The present paper summarizes the methodologies used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to simulate the effect of initial and model uncertainties in ensemble forecasting. The characteristics of the three systems are compared for a 3-month period between May and July 2002. The main conclusions of the study are the following:

  • the performance of ensemble prediction systems strongly depends on the quality of the data assimilation system used to create the unperturbed (best) initial condition and the numerical model used to generate the forecasts;
  • a successful ensemble prediction system should simulate the effect of both initial and model-related uncertainties on forecast errors; and
  • for all three global systems, the spread of ensemble forecasts is insufficient to systematically capture reality, suggesting that none of them is able to simulate all sources of forecast uncertainty.
The relative strengths and weaknesses of the three systems identified in this study can offer guidelines for the future development of ensemble forecasting techniques.

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Nathalie Voisin, Florian Pappenberger, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Roberto Buizza, and John C. Schaake

Abstract

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003–07. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and winds, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel setup was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effects of the initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The hydrologic prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. The initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

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Fuqing Zhang, Y. Qiang Sun, Linus Magnusson, Roberto Buizza, Shian-Jiann Lin, Jan-Huey Chen, and Kerry Emanuel

Abstract

Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). This predictability limit is studied using unprecedented high-resolution global models with ensemble experiments of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; 9-km operational model) and identical-twin experiments of the U.S. Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS; 3 km). Results suggest that the predictability limit for midlatitude weather may indeed exist and is intrinsic to the underlying dynamical system and instabilities even if the forecast model and the initial conditions are nearly perfect. Currently, a skillful forecast lead time of midlatitude instantaneous weather is around 10 days, which serves as the practical predictability limit. Reducing the current-day initial-condition uncertainty by an order of magnitude extends the deterministic forecast lead times of day-to-day weather by up to 5 days, with much less scope for improving prediction of small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms. Achieving this additional predictability limit can have enormous socioeconomic benefits but requires coordinated efforts by the entire community to design better numerical weather models, to improve observations, and to make better use of observations with advanced data assimilation and computing techniques.

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Chun-Chieh Wu, Jan-Huey Chen, Sharanya J. Majumdar, Melinda S. Peng, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Sim D. Aberson, Roberto Buizza, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Shin-Gan Chen, Tetsuo Nakazawa, and Kun-Hsuan Chou

Abstract

This study compares six different guidance products for targeted observations over the northwest Pacific Ocean for 84 cases of 2-day forecasts in 2006 and highlights the unique dynamical features affecting the tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in this basin. The six products include three types of guidance based on total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) from different global models, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) based on a multimodel ensemble, the deep-layer mean (DLM) wind variance, and the adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV). The similarities among the six products are evaluated using two objective statistical techniques to show the diversity of the sensitivity regions in large, synoptic-scale domains and in smaller domains local to the TC. It is shown that the three TESVs are relatively similar to one another in both the large and the small domains while the comparisons of the DLM wind variance with other methods show rather low similarities. The ETKF and the ADSSV usually show high similarity because their optimal sensitivity usually lies close to the TC. The ADSSV, relative to the ETKF, reveals more similar sensitivity patterns to those associated with TESVs. Three special cases are also selected to highlight the similarities and differences among the six guidance products and to interpret the dynamical systems affecting the TC motion in the northwestern Pacific. Among the three storms studied, Typhoon Chanchu was associated with the subtropical high, Typhoon Shanshan was associated with the midlatitude trough, and Typhoon Durian was associated with the subtropical jet. The adjoint methods are found to be more capable of capturing the signal of the dynamic system that may affect the TC movement or evolution than are the ensemble methods.

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Stefan Brönnimann, Rob Allan, Christopher Atkinson, Roberto Buizza, Olga Bulygina, Per Dahlgren, Dick Dee, Robert Dunn, Pedro Gomes, Viju O. John, Sylvie Jourdain, Leopold Haimberger, Hans Hersbach, John Kennedy, Paul Poli, Jouni Pulliainen, Nick Rayner, Roger Saunders, Jörg Schulz, Alexander Sterin, Alexander Stickler, Holly Titchner, Maria Antonia Valente, Clara Ventura, and Clive Wilkinson

Abstract

Global dynamical reanalyses of the atmosphere and ocean fundamentally rely on observations, not just for the assimilation (i.e., for the definition of the state of the Earth system components) but also in many other steps along the production chain. Observations are used to constrain the model boundary conditions, for the calibration or uncertainty determination of other observations, and for the evaluation of data products. This requires major efforts, including data rescue (for historical observations), data management (including metadatabases), compilation and quality control, and error estimation. The work on observations ideally occurs one cycle ahead of the generation cycle of reanalyses, allowing the reanalyses to make full use of it. In this paper we describe the activities within ERA-CLIM2, which range from surface, upper-air, and Southern Ocean data rescue to satellite data recalibration and from the generation of snow-cover products to the development of a global station data metadatabase. The project has not produced new data collections. Rather, the data generated has fed into global repositories and will serve future reanalysis projects. The continuation of this effort is first contingent upon the organization of data rescue and also upon a series of targeted research activities to address newly identified in situ and satellite records.

Open access
Roberto Buizza, Paul Poli, Michel Rixen, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, Michael G. Bosilovich, Stefan Brönnimann, Gilbert P. Compo, Dick P. Dee, Franco Desiato, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Masatomo Fujiwara, Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss, Shinya Kobayashi, Zhiquan Liu, Simona Masina, Pierre-Philippe Mathieu, Nick Rayner, Carolin Richter, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Adrian J. Simmons, Jean-Noel Thépaut, Jeffrey D. Auger, Michel Bechtold, Ellen Berntell, Bo Dong, Michal Kozubek, Khaled Sharif, Christopher Thomas, Semjon Schimanke, Andrea Storto, Matthias Tuma, Ilona Välisuo, and Alireza Vaselali
Open access
Roberto Buizza, Stefan Brönnimann, Leopold Haimberger, Patrick Laloyaux, Matthew J. Martin, Manuel Fuentes, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, Andreas Becker, Michael Blaschek, Per Dahlgren, Eric de Boisseson, Dick Dee, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Xiangbo Feng, Viju O. John, Keith Haines, Sylvie Jourdain, Yuki Kosaka, Daniel Lea, Florian Lemarié, Michael Mayer, Palmira Messina, Coralie Perruche, Philippe Peylin, Jounie Pullainen, Nick Rayner, Elke Rustemeier, Dinand Schepers, Roger Saunders, Jörg Schulz, Alexander Sterin, Sebastian Stichelberger, Andrea Storto, Charles-Emmanuel Testut, Maria-Antóonia Valente, Arthur Vidard, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Weaver, James While, and Markus Ziese

Abstract

The European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations 2 (ERA-CLIM2) is a European Union Seventh Framework Project started in January 2014 and due to be completed in December 2017. It aims to produce coupled reanalyses, which are physically consistent datasets describing the evolution of the global atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, and the carbon cycle. ERA-CLIM2 has contributed to advancing the capacity for producing state-of-the-art climate reanalyses that extend back to the early twentieth century. ERA-CLIM2 has led to the generation of the first European ensemble of coupled ocean, sea ice, land, and atmosphere reanalyses of the twentieth century. The project has funded work to rescue and prepare observations and to advance the data-assimilation systems required to generate operational reanalyses, such as the ones planned by the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service. This paper summarizes the main goals of the project, discusses some of its main areas of activities, and presents some of its key results.

Open access