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WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF FEBRUARY 1980
California Floods
Abstract
No abstract available.
Abstract
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Abstract
It is known that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the mean sea surface temperature off the Peru Coast are highly coherent and that variations of the latter are dominated by infrequent warming episodes. The present study examines the relative contribution of these warming episodes to the covariance of statistically significant correlations between the fall SOI and winter mean 700 mb heights in the Northern Hemisphere. The degree of dominance of the warming episode years in this context is evaluated by Monte Carlo methods.
It was found that, for the 30-year period studied, data pairs following tropical east Pacific warming events contributed disproportionately to major correlation maxima in much of the Northern Hemisphere. Such covariance concentrations, however, were found to be fairly likely outcomes (probability > 9%) if groups of years are chosen at random from the appropriate covariance arrays. Thus, we conclude that the influence of the fall SOI upon the subsequent winter mean 700 mb height distribution is a rather pervasive one, not limited to tropical east Pacific warming situations.
In contrast to other areas, correlation maxima in the North American sector received disproportionately small covariance contributions from the warming episode years. In northwest Canada, the contribution of those years was small and opposite in sign to the total covariance.
Abstract
It is known that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the mean sea surface temperature off the Peru Coast are highly coherent and that variations of the latter are dominated by infrequent warming episodes. The present study examines the relative contribution of these warming episodes to the covariance of statistically significant correlations between the fall SOI and winter mean 700 mb heights in the Northern Hemisphere. The degree of dominance of the warming episode years in this context is evaluated by Monte Carlo methods.
It was found that, for the 30-year period studied, data pairs following tropical east Pacific warming events contributed disproportionately to major correlation maxima in much of the Northern Hemisphere. Such covariance concentrations, however, were found to be fairly likely outcomes (probability > 9%) if groups of years are chosen at random from the appropriate covariance arrays. Thus, we conclude that the influence of the fall SOI upon the subsequent winter mean 700 mb height distribution is a rather pervasive one, not limited to tropical east Pacific warming situations.
In contrast to other areas, correlation maxima in the North American sector received disproportionately small covariance contributions from the warming episode years. In northwest Canada, the contribution of those years was small and opposite in sign to the total covariance.
Abstract
During the post-war period the pressure field at Greenland has been characterized by long-sustained winter regimes of alternating high and low pressure, with important effects on the winter climate of Europe. Although these alternations of pressure anomaly at Greenland may be shown to be associated with periods when the pattern of long waves in the upper westerlies showed a general reversal over much of the Northern Hemisphere, it is also suggested that within this hemispheric pattern of change, contemporary variations of winter climate along the Atlantic seaboard of North America have exerted an important influence on the pressure field at Greenland and, through teleconnections, elsewhere (e.g., the North Atlantic and Europe). Comparing months of extreme winter warmth and cold over the southeastern United States it is shown that changes in the strength of the baroclinic field at the coast are associated with major changes in the distribution of winter storms. More specifically, during winters of extreme cold over the southeastern United States and the associated enhanced baroclinicity at the Atlantic seaboard, the zone of peak winter storm frequency is drawn far to the southwest of normal, with a corresponding decrease in cyclonic activity in the Iceland-Greenland area.
Abstract
During the post-war period the pressure field at Greenland has been characterized by long-sustained winter regimes of alternating high and low pressure, with important effects on the winter climate of Europe. Although these alternations of pressure anomaly at Greenland may be shown to be associated with periods when the pattern of long waves in the upper westerlies showed a general reversal over much of the Northern Hemisphere, it is also suggested that within this hemispheric pattern of change, contemporary variations of winter climate along the Atlantic seaboard of North America have exerted an important influence on the pressure field at Greenland and, through teleconnections, elsewhere (e.g., the North Atlantic and Europe). Comparing months of extreme winter warmth and cold over the southeastern United States it is shown that changes in the strength of the baroclinic field at the coast are associated with major changes in the distribution of winter storms. More specifically, during winters of extreme cold over the southeastern United States and the associated enhanced baroclinicity at the Atlantic seaboard, the zone of peak winter storm frequency is drawn far to the southwest of normal, with a corresponding decrease in cyclonic activity in the Iceland-Greenland area.
