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Curtis R. Wood
,
Samantha J. Arnold
,
Ahmed A. Balogun
,
Janet F. Barlow
,
Stephen E. Belcher
,
Rex E. Britter
,
Hong Cheng
,
Adrian Dobre
,
Justin J. N. Lingard
,
Damien Martin
,
Marina K. Neophytou
,
Fredrik K. Petersson
,
Alan G. Robins
,
Dudley E. Shallcross
,
Robert J. Smalley
,
James E. Tate
,
Alison S. Tomlin
, and
Iain R. White

In the event of a release of toxic gas in the center of London, emergency services personnel would need to determine quickly the extent of the area contaminated. The transport of pollutants by turbulent flow within the complex streets and building architecture of London, United Kingdom, is not straightforward, and we might wonder whether it is at all possible to make a scientifically reasoned decision. Here, we describe recent progress from a major U.K. project, Dispersion of Air Pollution and its Penetration into the Local Environment (DAPPLE; information online at www.dapple.org.uk). In DAPPLE, we focus on the movement of airborne pollutants in cities by developing a greater understanding of atmospheric flow and dispersion within urban street networks. In particular, we carried out full-scale dispersion experiments in central London from 2003 through 2008 to address the extent of the dispersion of tracers following their release at street level. These measurements complemented previous studies because 1) our focus was on dispersion within the first kilometer from the source, when most of the material was expected to remain within the street network rather than being mixed into the boundary layer aloft; 2) measurements were made under a wide variety of meteorological conditions; and 3) central London represents a European, rather than North American, city geometry. Interpretation of the results from the full-scale experiments was supported by extensive numerical and wind tunnel modeling, which allowed more detailed analysis under idealized and controlled conditions. In this article, we review the full-scale DAPPLE methodologies and show early results from the analysis of the 2007 field campaign data.

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Christopher J. White
,
Daniela I. V. Domeisen
,
Nachiketa Acharya
,
Elijah A. Adefisan
,
Michael L. Anderson
,
Stella Aura
,
Ahmed A. Balogun
,
Douglas Bertram
,
Sonia Bluhm
,
David J. Brayshaw
,
Jethro Browell
,
Dominik Büeler
,
Andrew Charlton-Perez
,
Xandre Chourio
,
Isadora Christel
,
Caio A. S. Coelho
,
Michael J. DeFlorio
,
Luca Delle Monache
,
Francesca Di Giuseppe
,
Ana María García-Solórzano
,
Peter B. Gibson
,
Lisa Goddard
,
Carmen González Romero
,
Richard J. Graham
,
Robert M. Graham
,
Christian M. Grams
,
Alan Halford
,
W. T. Katty Huang
,
Kjeld Jensen
,
Mary Kilavi
,
Kamoru A. Lawal
,
Robert W. Lee
,
David MacLeod
,
Andrea Manrique-Suñén
,
Eduardo S. P. R. Martins
,
Carolyn J. Maxwell
,
William J. Merryfield
,
Ángel G. Muñoz
,
Eniola Olaniyan
,
George Otieno
,
John A. Oyedepo
,
Lluís Palma
,
Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
,
Diego Pons
,
F. Martin Ralph
,
Dirceu S. Reis Jr.
,
Tomas A. Remenyi
,
James S. Risbey
,
Donald J. C. Robertson
,
Andrew W. Robertson
,
Stefan Smith
,
Albert Soret
,
Ting Sun
,
Martin C. Todd
,
Carly R. Tozer
,
Francisco C. Vasconcelos Jr.
,
Ilaria Vigo
,
Duane E. Waliser
,
Fredrik Wetterhall
, and
Robert G. Wilson

Abstract

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

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