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Shikha Singh
,
Janet Sprintall
,
Antonietta Capotondi
, and
Regina Rodrigues
Open access
Eric Guilyardi
,
Andrew Wittenberg
,
Alexey Fedorov
,
Mat Collins
,
Chunzai Wang
,
Antonietta Capotondi
,
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
, and
Tim Stockdale

Determining how El Niño and its impacts may change over the next 10 to 100 years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are routinely used both to analyze El Niño mechanisms and teleconnections and to predict its evolution on a broad range of time scales, from seasonal to centennial. The ability to simulate El Niño as an emergent property of these models has largely improved over the last few years. Nevertheless, the diversity of model simulations of present-day El Niño indicates current limitations in our ability to model this climate phenomenon and to anticipate changes in its characteristics. A review of the several factors that contribute to this diversity, as well as potential means to improve the simulation of El Niño, is presented.

Full access
Samson Hagos
,
Gregory R. Foltz
,
Chidong Zhang
,
Elizabeth Thompson
,
Hyodae Seo
,
Sue Chen
,
Antonietta Capotondi
,
Kevin A. Reed
,
Charlotte DeMott
, and
Alain Protat
Free access
Dillon J. Amaya
,
Michael A. Alexander
,
Antonietta Capotondi
,
Clara Deser
,
Kristopher B. Karnauskas
,
Arthur J. Miller
, and
Nathan J. Mantua
Open access
Antonietta Capotondi
,
Andrew T. Wittenberg
,
Matthew Newman
,
Emanuele Di Lorenzo
,
Jin-Yi Yu
,
Pascale Braconnot
,
Julia Cole
,
Boris Dewitte
,
Benjamin Giese
,
Eric Guilyardi
,
Fei-Fei Jin
,
Kristopher Karnauskas
,
Benjamin Kirtman
,
Tong Lee
,
Niklas Schneider
,
Yan Xue
, and
Sang-Wook Yeh

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.

Full access