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Hung-Chi Kuo, Chih-Pei Chang, and Ching-Hwang Liu

Abstract

This study examines the convection and rapid filamentation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) P-3 aircraft data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) and The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) field experiments. The high-resolution aircraft radar and wind data are used to directly compute the filamentation time, to allow an investigation into the effect of filamentation on convection. During the reintensification stage, some regions of deep convection near the eyewall are found in the vorticity-dominated area where there is little filamentation. In some other parts of the eyewall and the outer spiral rainband region, including areas of upward motion, the filamentation process appears to suppress deep convection. However, the magnitude of the suppression differs greatly in the two regions. In the outer spiral band region, which is about 200 km from the center, the suppression is much more effective, such that the ratio of the deep convective regime occurrence over the stratiform regime varies from around 50% (200%) for filamentation time shorter (longer) than 24 min. In the eyewall cloud region where the conditions are conducive to deep convection, the filamentation effect may be quite limited. While effect of filamentation suppression is only about 10%, it is still systematic and conspicuous for filamentation times shorter than 19 min. The results suggest the possible importance of vortex-scale filamentation dynamics in suppressing deep convection and organizing spiral bands, which may affect the development and evolution of tropical cyclones.

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Xue Liu, Ping Chang, Jaison Kurian, R. Saravanan, and Xiaopei Lin

Abstract

Among various forms of atmospheric response to ocean mesoscale eddies, the rainfall response is the most difficult to quantify and is subject to considerable uncertainty. Here the robustness of the rainfall response is examined by comparing three different satellite-derived rainfall datasets: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) global precipitation, and the newly available Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) that is based on the latest remote sensing technology with finer spatial and temporal resolution. Results show that all datasets exhibit a similar rainfall response to ocean eddies, but the amplitude of the rainfall response is much stronger in IMERG than in the other two, despite the fact that IMERG provides the weakest time-mean rainfall estimate. In situ validation against the NOAA’s Ocean Climate Stations Project (OCS) Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) buoy rainfall measurement shows that IMERG is more accurate in estimating both the mean value of rainfall and its intensity distribution than the other two products, at least in the Kuroshio Extension region. Further analysis reveals that 1) eddy-induced precipitation response is significantly stronger in winter than in summer, and 2) warm-eddy-induced rainfall response is considerably stronger than cold-eddy-induced response, and these asymmetries in rainfall response are more robust in IMERG than in the other two datasets. Documenting and analyzing these asymmetric rainfall responses is important for understanding the potential role of ocean eddies in forcing the large-scale atmospheric circulation and climate.

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C-P. Chang, Zhuo Wang, John McBride, and Ching-Hwang Liu

Abstract

In general, the Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and Philippines are in the Asian summer monsoon regime while the Maritime Continent experiences a wet monsoon during boreal winter and a dry season during boreal summer. However, the complex distribution of land, sea, and terrain results in significant local variations of the annual cycle. This work uses historical station rainfall data to classify the annual cycles of rainfall over land areas, the TRMM rainfall measurements to identify the monsoon regimes of the four seasons in all of Southeast Asia, and the QuikSCAT winds to study the causes of the variations.

The annual cycle is dominated largely by interactions between the complex terrain and a simple annual reversal of the surface monsoonal winds throughout all monsoon regions from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and the equatorial western Pacific. The semiannual cycle is comparable in magnitude to the annual cycle over parts of the equatorial landmasses, but only a very small region reflects the twice-yearly crossing of the sun. Most of the semiannual cycle appears to be due to the influence of both the summer and the winter monsoon in the western part of the Maritime Continent where the annual cycle maximum occurs in fall. Analysis of the TRMM data reveals a structure whereby the boreal summer and winter monsoon rainfall regimes intertwine across the equator and both are strongly affected by the wind–terrain interaction. In particular, the boreal winter regime extends far northward along the eastern flanks of the major island groups and landmasses.

A hypothesis is presented to explain the asymmetric seasonal march in which the maximum convection follows a gradual southeastward progression path from the Asian summer monsoon to the Asian winter monsoon but experiences a sudden transition in the reverse. The hypothesis is based on the redistribution of mass between land and ocean areas during spring and fall that results from different land–ocean thermal memories. This mass redistribution between the two transition seasons produces sea level patterns leading to asymmetric wind–terrain interactions throughout the region, and a low-level divergence asymmetry in the region that promotes the southward march of maximum convection during boreal fall but opposes the northward march during boreal spring.

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Lei Liu, Xue-jin Sun, Tai-chang Gao, and Shi-jun Zhao

Abstract

Cloud properties derived from the whole-sky infrared cloud-measuring system (WSIRCMS) are analyzed in relation to measurements of visual observations and a ceilometer during the period July–August 2010 at the Chinese Meteorological Administration Yangjiang Station, Guangdong Province, China. The comparison focuses on the performance and features of the WSIRCMS as a prototype instrument for automatic cloud observations. Cloud cover derived from the WSIRCMS cloud algorithm compares quite well with cloud cover derived from visual observations. Cloud cover differences between WSIRCMS and visual observations are within ±1 octa in 70.83% and within ±2 octa in 82.44% of the cases. For cloud-base height from WSIRCMS data and Vaisala ceilometer CL51, the comparison shows a generally good correspondence in the lower and midtroposphere up to the height of about 6 km, with some systematic difference due to different detection methods. Differences between the resulting cloud-type classifications derived from the WSIRCMS and from visual observations show that cumulus and cirrus are classified with high accuracy, but that stratocumulus and altocumulus are not. Stratocumulus and altocumulus are suggested to be treated as waveform cloud for classification purposes. In addition, it is considered an intractable problem for automatic cloud-measurement instruments to do cloud classification when the cloud amount is less than 2 octa.

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Ming-Huei Chang, Sen Jan, Chih-Lun Liu, Yu-Hsin Cheng, and Vigan Mensah

Abstract

Oceanic vortex evolution on the lee side of Taiwan’s Green Island (~7 km in diameter), where the Kuroshio flows at a speed of 1–1.5 m s−1, is observationally examined and compared to theories and the preceding results of laboratory experiments. In the near wake, recirculation occurs with a relative vorticity of ζ ~ 20f (where f is the planetary vorticity) and subsequently sheds at a combination of periods resulting from the tidal oscillations and the intrinsic time scale of eddy evolution. The tidal oscillations are the predominant processes. Our analysis suggests that an island positioned in the Kuroshio with periodic and cross-stream tidal excursions is analogous to a cross-stream oscillating cylinder. Consequently, the shedding period of the vortex is synchronized to a tidal period occurring close to the intrinsic period. The free shear layer, which is characterized by an ~30f relative vorticity band (2 km wide) and a wavy thermal front, develops between the Kuroshio and recirculation. The frontal wave occurring over a time period of 0.5–2 h resembles Kelvin–Helmholtz instability corresponding to high Re values. For the far wake, repeated cross-wake surveys suggest that cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices are alternatively present at a period close to the period of M2 tides in agreement with near-wake measurements. Repeated along-wake surveys reveal a cyclonic eddy shedding downstream at a speed of 0.35 m s−1, 1/3 of the upstream current speed, from the near wake. In comparing our observations with the results of previous water tank experiments, an Re value of O(103) for the submesoscale wake regime is expected.

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Bin Wang, Zhiwei Wu, Chih-Pei Chang, Jian Liu, Jianping Li, and Tianjun Zhou

Abstract

This study investigates the causes of interannual-to-interdecadal variability of the East Asian (EA; 0°–60°N, 100°–140°E) winter monsoon (EAWM) over the past 50 yr (1957–2006). The winter mean surface air temperature variations are dominated by two distinct principal modes that together account for 74% of the total temperature variance. The two modes have notably different circulation structures and sources of variability. The northern mode, characterized by a westward shift of the EA major trough and enhanced surface pressure over central Siberia, represents a cold winter in the northern EA resulting from cold-air intrusion from central Siberia. The southern mode, on the other hand, features a deepening EA trough and increased surface pressure over Mongolia, representing a cold winter south of 40°N resulting from cold-air intrusion from western Mongolia. The cold northern mode is preceded by excessive autumn snow covers over southern Siberia–Mongolia, whereas the cold southern mode is preceded by development of La Niña episodes and reduced snow covers over northeast Siberia. These remarkably different spatiotemporal structures and origins are primarily associated with interannual variations. On the decadal or longer time scale their structures are somewhat similar and are preceded by similar autumn sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean. The two modes found for the EA region also represent the winter temperature variability over the entire Asian continent. Thus, study of the predictability of the two modes may shed light on understanding the predictable dynamics of the Asian winter monsoon.

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Shengpeng Wang, Zhao Jing, Qiuying Zhang, Ping Chang, Zhaohui Chen, Hailong Liu, and Lixin Wu

Abstract

In this study, the global eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget in horizontal wavenumber space is analyzed based on 1/10° ocean general circulation model simulations. In both the tropical and midlatitude regions, the barotropic energy conversion from background flow to eddies is positive throughout the wavenumber space and generally peaks at the scale (L e) where EKE reaches its maximum. The baroclinic energy conversion is more pronounced at midlatitudes. It exhibits a dipolar structure with positive and negative values at scales smaller and larger than L e, respectively. Surface wind power on geostrophic flow results in a significant EKE loss around L e but deposits energy at larger scales. The interior viscous dissipation and bottom drag inferred from the pressure flux convergence act as EKE sink terms. The latter is most efficient at L e while the former is more dominant at smaller scales. There is an evident mismatch between EKE generation and dissipation in the spectral space especially at the midlatitudes. This is reconciled by a dominant forward energy cascade on the equator and a dominant inverse energy cascade at the midlatitudes.

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Brian A. Colle, Zhenhai Zhang, Kelly A. Lombardo, Edmund Chang, Ping Liu, and Minghua Zhang

Abstract

Extratropical cyclone track density, genesis frequency, deepening rate, and maximum intensity distributions over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic were analyzed for 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical period (1979–2004) and three future periods (2009–38, 2039–68, and 2069–98). The cyclones were identified using an automated tracking algorithm applied to sea level pressure every 6 h. The CMIP5 results for the historical period were evaluated using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The CMIP5 models were ranked given their track density, intensity, and overall performance for the historical period. It was found that six of the top seven CMIP5 models with the highest spatial resolution were ranked the best overall. These models had less underprediction of cyclone track density, more realistic distribution of intense cyclones along the U.S. East Coast, and more realistic cyclogenesis and deepening rates. The best seven models were used to determine projected future changes in cyclones, which included a 10%–30% decrease in cyclone track density and weakening of cyclones over the western Atlantic storm track, while in contrast there is a 10%–20% increase in cyclone track density over the eastern United States, including 10%–40% more intense (<980 hPa) cyclones and 20%–40% more rapid deepening rates just inland of the U.S. East Coast. Some of the reasons for these CMIP5 model differences were explored for the selected models based on model generated Eady growth rate, upper-level jet, surface baroclinicity, and precipitation.

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Tsing-Chang Chen, Ming-Cheng Yen, Gin-Rong Liu, and Shu-Yu Wang

The midocean trough in the North Pacific may form a favorable environment for the genesis of some synoptic disturbances. In contrast, the North Pacific anticyclone may hinder the downward penetration of these disturbances into the lower troposphere and prevent the moisture supply to these disturbances from the lower troposphere. Because no thick clouds, rainfall, and destructive surface winds are associated with these disturbances to attract attention, they have not been analyzed or documented. Actually, the upper-level wind speed within these disturbances is sometimes as strong as tropical cyclones and has the possibility of causing air traffic hazards in the western subtropic Pacific. With infrared images of the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, 25 North Pacific disturbances were identified over six summers (1993–98). Two aspects of these disturbances were explored: spatial structure and basic dynamics. For their structure, the disturbances possess a well-organized vortex in the middle to upper troposphere with a descending dry/cold core encircled by the moist ascending air around the vortex periphery; the secondary circulation of the vortex is opposite to other types of synoptic disturbances. Since vorticity reaches maximum values along the midocean trough line, barotrophic instability is suggested as a likely genesis mechanism of the vortex. After the vortex is formed, the horizontal advection of total vorticity results in its westward propagation, while the secondary circulation hinders this movement. Along its westward moving course, close to East Asia, there is a reduction in vortex size and a tangential speed increase inversely proportional to the vortex size. Diminishing its horizontal convergence/descending motion by the upper-tropospheric East Asian high and the lower-tropospheric monsoon low, the vortex eventually dissipates along the East Asian coast.

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Yuxin Zhao, Dequan Yang, Wei Li, Chang Liu, Xiong Deng, Rixu Hao, and Zhongjie He

Abstract

A spatiotemporal empirical orthogonal function (STEOF) forecast method is proposed and used in medium- to long-term sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) forecast. This method embeds temporal information in empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns, effectively capturing the evolving spatial distribution of variables and avoiding the typical rapid accumulation of forecast errors. The forecast experiments are carried out for SSHA in the South China Sea to evaluate the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the STEOF forecast method consistently outperforms the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), optimal climatic normal (OCN), and persistence prediction. The model accurately forecasts the intensity and location of ocean eddies, indicating its great potential for practical applications in medium- to long-term ocean forecasts.

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