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A. C. Kren
,
D. R. Marsh
,
A. K. Smith
, and
P. Pilewskie

Abstract

The response of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is examined using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. A 200-yr preindustrial control simulation that includes fully interactive chemistry, ocean and sea ice, constant solar forcing, and greenhouse gases fixed to 1850 levels is analyzed. Based on principal component analysis, the PDO spatial pattern, frequency, and amplitude agree well with the observed PDO over the period 1900–2014. Consistent with previous studies, the positive phase of the PDO is marked by a strengthened Aleutian low and a wave train of geopotential height anomalies reminiscent of the Pacific–North American pattern in the troposphere. In addition to a tropospheric signal, a zonal-mean warming of about 2 K in the northern polar stratosphere and a zonal-mean zonal wind decrease of about 4 m s−1 in the PDO positive phase are found. When compositing PDO positive or negative winters during neutral El Niño years, the magnitude is reduced and depicts an early winter forcing of the stratosphere compared to a late winter response from El Niño. Contamination between PDO and ENSO signals is also discussed. Stratospheric sudden warmings occur 63% of the time in the PDO positive phase compared to 40% in the negative phase. Although this sudden warming frequency is not statistically significant, it is quantitatively consistent with NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and recent observational evidence linking the PDO positive phase to weak stratospheric vortex events.

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Andrea K. Eaton
,
Wayne R. Rouse
,
Peter M. Lafleur
,
Philip Marsh
, and
Peter D. Blanken

Abstract

In this study, the surface energy balance of 10 sites in the western and central Canadian subarctic is examined. Each research site is classified into one of five terrain types (lake, wetland, shrub tundra, upland tundra, and coniferous forest) using dominant vegetation type as an indicator of surface cover. Variations in the mean summertime values (15 June–25 August) of the energy balance partitioning, Bowen ratio (β), Priestley–Taylor alpha (α), and surface saturation deficit (D o ) are compared within and among terrain types. A clear correspondence between the energy balance characteristics and terrain type is found. In addition, an evaporative continuum from relatively wet to relatively dry is observed among terrain types. The shallow lake and wetland sites are relatively wet with high Q E /Q* (latent heat flux/net radiation), high α, low β, and low D o values. In contrast, the upland tundra and forest sites are relatively dry with low Q E /Q*, low α, high β, and high D o values.

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G. Chiodo
,
L. M. Polvani
,
D. R. Marsh
,
A. Stenke
,
W. Ball
,
E. Rozanov
,
S. Muthers
, and
K. Tsigaridis

Abstract

An accurate quantification of the stratospheric ozone feedback in climate change simulations requires knowledge of the ozone response to increased greenhouse gases. Here, an analysis is presented of the ozone layer response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 concentrations in four chemistry–climate models. The authors show that increased CO2 levels lead to a decrease in ozone concentrations in the tropical lower stratosphere, and an increase over the high latitudes and throughout the upper stratosphere. This pattern is robust across all models examined here, although important intermodel differences in the magnitude of the response are found. As a result of the cancellation between the upper- and lower-stratospheric ozone, the total column ozone response in the tropics is small, and appears to be model dependent. A substantial portion of the spread in the tropical column ozone is tied to intermodel spread in upwelling. The high-latitude ozone response is strongly seasonally dependent, and shows increases peaking in late winter and spring of each hemisphere, with prominent longitudinal asymmetries. The range of ozone responses to CO2 reported in this paper has the potential to induce significant radiative and dynamical effects on the simulated climate. Hence, these results highlight the need of using an ozone dataset consistent with CO2 forcing in models involved in climate sensitivity studies.

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