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  • Author or Editor: David L. Priegnitz x
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AndréA. Doneaud
,
Stefano Ionescu-Niscov
,
David L. Priegnitz
, and
Paul L. Smith

Abstract

Digital radar data are used to investigate further a simple technique for estimating rainfall amounts on the basis of area coverage information. The basis of the technique is the existence of a strong correlation between a measure of the rain area coverage and duration called the Area-Time Integral (ATI) and the rain volume. This strong correlation is again demonstrated using echo cluster data from the North Dakota Cloud Modification Project 5 cm radars.

Integration on a scan-by-scan basis proved to be superior for determining ATI values to the hour-by-hour integration used previously. A 25 dB(z) reflectivity threshold was found suitable for the ATI calculation. The correlation coefficient on log-log plots of cluster rain volume versus ATI is approximately 0.98, indicating a power-law relationship between the variables. The exponent of that relationship is just a little higher than one, which indicates that the cluster average rainfall rate is almost independent of the storm size and duration.

A test of the relationship derived from one set of data (1980) against an independent set (1981) showed it to be consistent. Using the 1980 relationship to estimate the 1981 cluster rain volume for a given ATI, the uncertainty of the rain volume estimates was found to be −31%, +46%.

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Paul L. Smith
,
L. Ronald Johnson
,
David L. Priegnitz
,
Bruce A. Boe
, and
Paul W. Mielke Jr.

Abstract

The basis for the cloud seeding operations of the North Dakota Cloud Modification Project (NDCMP) is first outlined. Then the multiresponse permutation procedures are applied in an analysis of crop hail insurance data for the NDCMP target area and for an upwind control area in eastern Montana. A historical analysis of the annual hail insurance loss ratios for the target area indicates lower hail-loss experience during the NDCMP operational years 1976–88. A corresponding analysis for the control area shows no indication of a difference during those years, suggesting the absence of any significant climatological variation. Analysis of a target–control scatterplot of the loss ratios also indicates that the target area experienced relatively smaller hail losses during the NDCMP period. An inference that the difference can be attributed to the NDCMP seeding operations appears to be justified, and the reduction in hail insurance loss ratios in the target area during the NDCMP years is estimated to be about 45%.

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