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Abstract
The NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset (DOISST) has recently been updated to v2.1 (January 2016–present). Its accuracy may impact the climate assessment, monitoring and prediction, and environment-related applications. Its performance, together with those of seven other well-known sea surface temperature (SST) products, is assessed by comparison with buoy and Argo observations in the global oceans on daily 0.25° × 0.25° resolution from January 2016 to June 2020. These seven SST products are NASA MUR25, GHRSST GMPE, BoM GAMSSA, UKMO OSTIA, NOAA GPB, ESA CCI, and CMC. Our assessments indicate that biases and root-mean-square difference (RMSDs) in reference to all buoys and all Argo floats are low in DOISST. The bias in reference to the independent 10% of buoy SSTs remains low in DOISST, but the RMSD is slightly higher in DOISST than in OSTIA and CMC. The biases in reference to the independent 10% of Argo observations are low in CMC, DOISST, and GMPE; also, RMSDs are low in GMPE and CMC. The biases are similar in GAMSSA, OSTIA, GPB, and CCI whether they are compared against all buoys, all Argo, or the 10% of buoy or 10% of Argo observations, while the RMSDs against Argo observations are slightly smaller than those against buoy observations. These features indicate a good performance of DOISST v2.1 among the eight products, which may benefit from ingesting the Argo observations by expanding global and regional spatial coverage of in situ observations for effective bias correction of satellite data.
Abstract
The NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset (DOISST) has recently been updated to v2.1 (January 2016–present). Its accuracy may impact the climate assessment, monitoring and prediction, and environment-related applications. Its performance, together with those of seven other well-known sea surface temperature (SST) products, is assessed by comparison with buoy and Argo observations in the global oceans on daily 0.25° × 0.25° resolution from January 2016 to June 2020. These seven SST products are NASA MUR25, GHRSST GMPE, BoM GAMSSA, UKMO OSTIA, NOAA GPB, ESA CCI, and CMC. Our assessments indicate that biases and root-mean-square difference (RMSDs) in reference to all buoys and all Argo floats are low in DOISST. The bias in reference to the independent 10% of buoy SSTs remains low in DOISST, but the RMSD is slightly higher in DOISST than in OSTIA and CMC. The biases in reference to the independent 10% of Argo observations are low in CMC, DOISST, and GMPE; also, RMSDs are low in GMPE and CMC. The biases are similar in GAMSSA, OSTIA, GPB, and CCI whether they are compared against all buoys, all Argo, or the 10% of buoy or 10% of Argo observations, while the RMSDs against Argo observations are slightly smaller than those against buoy observations. These features indicate a good performance of DOISST v2.1 among the eight products, which may benefit from ingesting the Argo observations by expanding global and regional spatial coverage of in situ observations for effective bias correction of satellite data.
Abstract
The difficulty in effectively evaluating sea surface temperature (SST) analyses is finding independent observations, since most available observations have been used in the SST analyses. In this study, the ocean profile measurements [from reverse thermometer, CTD, mechanical bathythermograph (MBT), and XBT] above 5-m depth over 1950–2016 from the World Ocean Database (WOD) are used (data labeled pSSTW). The biases of MBT and XBT are corrected based on currently available algorithms. The bias-corrected pSSTW over 1950–2016 and satellite-based SST from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) over 1992–2010 are used to evaluate commonly available SST analyses. These SST analyses are the Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST), versions 5, 4, and 3b, the Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST dataset (HadISST), and the Japan Meteorological Administration (JMA) Centennial In Situ Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2.9.2 (COBE-SST2). Our comparisons show that the SST from COBE-SST2 is the closest to pSSTW and CCI in most of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern Oceans, which may result from its unique bias correction to ship observations. The SST from ERSST version 5 is more consistent with pSSTW than its previous versions over 1950–2016, and is more consistent with CCI than its previous versions over 1992–2010. The better performance of ERSST version 5 over its previous versions is attributed to its improved bias correction applied to ship observations with a baseline of buoy observations, and is seen in most of the Pacific and Atlantic.
Abstract
The difficulty in effectively evaluating sea surface temperature (SST) analyses is finding independent observations, since most available observations have been used in the SST analyses. In this study, the ocean profile measurements [from reverse thermometer, CTD, mechanical bathythermograph (MBT), and XBT] above 5-m depth over 1950–2016 from the World Ocean Database (WOD) are used (data labeled pSSTW). The biases of MBT and XBT are corrected based on currently available algorithms. The bias-corrected pSSTW over 1950–2016 and satellite-based SST from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) over 1992–2010 are used to evaluate commonly available SST analyses. These SST analyses are the Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST), versions 5, 4, and 3b, the Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST dataset (HadISST), and the Japan Meteorological Administration (JMA) Centennial In Situ Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2.9.2 (COBE-SST2). Our comparisons show that the SST from COBE-SST2 is the closest to pSSTW and CCI in most of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Southern Oceans, which may result from its unique bias correction to ship observations. The SST from ERSST version 5 is more consistent with pSSTW than its previous versions over 1950–2016, and is more consistent with CCI than its previous versions over 1992–2010. The better performance of ERSST version 5 over its previous versions is attributed to its improved bias correction applied to ship observations with a baseline of buoy observations, and is seen in most of the Pacific and Atlantic.
Weather observations are vital for climate change monitoring and prediction. For the world's oceans, there are many meteorological and oceanographic observations available back to the mid-twentieth century, but coverage is limited in earlier periods, and particularly also during the two world wars. Before 1850 there are currently very few instrumental observations available. Consequently, detailed observational estimates of surface climate change can be made only back to the mid-nineteenth century. To improve and extend this early coverage, scientists need more observations from these periods. Fortunately, many such observations exist in logbooks, reports, and other paper records, but their inclusion in the climatic datasets requires that these paper records be abstracted from the world's archives, digitized into an electronic form, and blended into existing climate databases.
As a first step in this direction, selected Royal Navy logbooks from the period of 1938–47, kept in the U.K. National Archives, have been photographed and digitized. These have provided more than 1,500,000 new observations for this period, and a preliminary analysis has shown significant improvements to the record of climate change in the mid-twentieth century.
Weather observations are vital for climate change monitoring and prediction. For the world's oceans, there are many meteorological and oceanographic observations available back to the mid-twentieth century, but coverage is limited in earlier periods, and particularly also during the two world wars. Before 1850 there are currently very few instrumental observations available. Consequently, detailed observational estimates of surface climate change can be made only back to the mid-nineteenth century. To improve and extend this early coverage, scientists need more observations from these periods. Fortunately, many such observations exist in logbooks, reports, and other paper records, but their inclusion in the climatic datasets requires that these paper records be abstracted from the world's archives, digitized into an electronic form, and blended into existing climate databases.
As a first step in this direction, selected Royal Navy logbooks from the period of 1938–47, kept in the U.K. National Archives, have been photographed and digitized. These have provided more than 1,500,000 new observations for this period, and a preliminary analysis has shown significant improvements to the record of climate change in the mid-twentieth century.
Abstract
The NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST), version 2.0, dataset (DOISST v2.0) is a blend of in situ ship and buoy SSTs with satellite SSTs derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). DOISST v2.0 exhibited a cold bias in the Indian, South Pacific, and South Atlantic Oceans that is due to a lack of ingested drifting-buoy SSTs in the system, which resulted from a gradual data format change from the traditional alphanumeric codes (TAC) to the binary universal form for the representation of meteorological data (BUFR). The cold bias against Argo was about −0.14°C on global average and −0.28°C in the Indian Ocean from January 2016 to August 2019. We explored the reasons for these cold biases through six progressive experiments. These experiments showed that the cold biases can be effectively reduced by adjusting ship SSTs with available buoy SSTs, using the latest available ICOADS R3.0.2 derived from merging BUFR and TAC, as well as by including Argo observations above 5-m depth. The impact of using the satellite MetOp-B instead of NOAA-19 was notable for high-latitude oceans but small on global average, since their biases are adjusted using in situ SSTs. In addition, the warm SSTs in the Arctic were improved by applying a freezing point instead of regressed ice-SST proxy. This paper describes an upgraded version, DOISST v2.1, which addresses biases in v2.0. Overall, by updating v2.0 to v2.1, the biases are reduced to −0.07° and −0.14°C in the global ocean and Indian Ocean, respectively, when compared with independent Argo observations and are reduced to −0.04° and −0.08°C in the global ocean and Indian Ocean, respectively, when compared with dependent Argo observations. The difference against the Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) Multiproduct Ensemble (GMPE) product is reduced from −0.09° to −0.01°C in the global oceans and from −0.20° to −0.04°C in the Indian Ocean.
Abstract
The NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST), version 2.0, dataset (DOISST v2.0) is a blend of in situ ship and buoy SSTs with satellite SSTs derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). DOISST v2.0 exhibited a cold bias in the Indian, South Pacific, and South Atlantic Oceans that is due to a lack of ingested drifting-buoy SSTs in the system, which resulted from a gradual data format change from the traditional alphanumeric codes (TAC) to the binary universal form for the representation of meteorological data (BUFR). The cold bias against Argo was about −0.14°C on global average and −0.28°C in the Indian Ocean from January 2016 to August 2019. We explored the reasons for these cold biases through six progressive experiments. These experiments showed that the cold biases can be effectively reduced by adjusting ship SSTs with available buoy SSTs, using the latest available ICOADS R3.0.2 derived from merging BUFR and TAC, as well as by including Argo observations above 5-m depth. The impact of using the satellite MetOp-B instead of NOAA-19 was notable for high-latitude oceans but small on global average, since their biases are adjusted using in situ SSTs. In addition, the warm SSTs in the Arctic were improved by applying a freezing point instead of regressed ice-SST proxy. This paper describes an upgraded version, DOISST v2.1, which addresses biases in v2.0. Overall, by updating v2.0 to v2.1, the biases are reduced to −0.07° and −0.14°C in the global ocean and Indian Ocean, respectively, when compared with independent Argo observations and are reduced to −0.04° and −0.08°C in the global ocean and Indian Ocean, respectively, when compared with dependent Argo observations. The difference against the Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) Multiproduct Ensemble (GMPE) product is reduced from −0.09° to −0.01°C in the global oceans and from −0.20° to −0.04°C in the Indian Ocean.
Abstract
Described herein is the parametric and structural uncertainty quantification for the monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). A Monte Carlo ensemble approach was adopted to characterize parametric uncertainty, because initial experiments indicate the existence of significant nonlinear interactions. Globally, the resulting ensemble exhibits a wider uncertainty range before 1900, as well as an uncertainty maximum around World War II. Changes at smaller spatial scales in many regions, or for important features such as Niño-3.4 variability, are found to be dominated by particular parameter choices.
Substantial differences in parametric uncertainty estimates are found between ERSST.v4 and the independently derived Hadley Centre SST version 3 (HadSST3) product. The largest uncertainties are over the mid and high latitudes in ERSST.v4 but in the tropics in HadSST3. Overall, in comparison with HadSST3, ERSST.v4 has larger parametric uncertainties at smaller spatial and shorter time scales and smaller parametric uncertainties at longer time scales, which likely reflects the different sources of uncertainty quantified in the respective parametric analyses. ERSST.v4 exhibits a stronger globally averaged warming trend than HadSST3 during the period of 1910–2012, but with a smaller parametric uncertainty. These global-mean trend estimates and their uncertainties marginally overlap.
Several additional SST datasets are used to infer the structural uncertainty inherent in SST estimates. For the global mean, the structural uncertainty, estimated as the spread between available SST products, is more often than not larger than the parametric uncertainty in ERSST.v4. Neither parametric nor structural uncertainties call into question that on the global-mean level and centennial time scale, SSTs have warmed notably.
Abstract
Described herein is the parametric and structural uncertainty quantification for the monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) version 4 (v4). A Monte Carlo ensemble approach was adopted to characterize parametric uncertainty, because initial experiments indicate the existence of significant nonlinear interactions. Globally, the resulting ensemble exhibits a wider uncertainty range before 1900, as well as an uncertainty maximum around World War II. Changes at smaller spatial scales in many regions, or for important features such as Niño-3.4 variability, are found to be dominated by particular parameter choices.
Substantial differences in parametric uncertainty estimates are found between ERSST.v4 and the independently derived Hadley Centre SST version 3 (HadSST3) product. The largest uncertainties are over the mid and high latitudes in ERSST.v4 but in the tropics in HadSST3. Overall, in comparison with HadSST3, ERSST.v4 has larger parametric uncertainties at smaller spatial and shorter time scales and smaller parametric uncertainties at longer time scales, which likely reflects the different sources of uncertainty quantified in the respective parametric analyses. ERSST.v4 exhibits a stronger globally averaged warming trend than HadSST3 during the period of 1910–2012, but with a smaller parametric uncertainty. These global-mean trend estimates and their uncertainties marginally overlap.
Several additional SST datasets are used to infer the structural uncertainty inherent in SST estimates. For the global mean, the structural uncertainty, estimated as the spread between available SST products, is more often than not larger than the parametric uncertainty in ERSST.v4. Neither parametric nor structural uncertainties call into question that on the global-mean level and centennial time scale, SSTs have warmed notably.
Abstract
The monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset, available on global 2° × 2° grids, has been revised herein to version 4 (v4) from v3b. Major revisions include updated and substantially more complete input data from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) release 2.5; revised empirical orthogonal teleconnections (EOTs) and EOT acceptance criterion; updated sea surface temperature (SST) quality control procedures; revised SST anomaly (SSTA) evaluation methods; updated bias adjustments of ship SSTs using the Hadley Centre Nighttime Marine Air Temperature dataset version 2 (HadNMAT2); and buoy SST bias adjustment not previously made in v3b.
Tests show that the impacts of the revisions to ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 are dominant among all revisions and updates. The effect is to make SST 0.1°–0.2°C cooler north of 30°S but 0.1°–0.2°C warmer south of 30°S in ERSST.v4 than in ERSST.v3b before 1940. In comparison with the Met Office SST product [the Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature dataset, version 3 (HadSST3)], the ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 is 0.1°–0.2°C cooler in the tropics but 0.1°–0.2°C warmer in the midlatitude oceans both before 1940 and from 1945 to 1970. Comparisons highlight differences in long-term SST trends and SSTA variations at decadal time scales among ERSST.v4, ERSST.v3b, HadSST3, and Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2 (COBE-SST2), which is largely associated with the difference of bias adjustments in these SST products. The tests also show that, when compared with v3b, SSTAs in ERSST.v4 can substantially better represent the El Niño/La Niña behavior when observations are sparse before 1940. Comparisons indicate that SSTs in ERSST.v4 are as close to satellite-based observations as other similar SST analyses.
Abstract
The monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset, available on global 2° × 2° grids, has been revised herein to version 4 (v4) from v3b. Major revisions include updated and substantially more complete input data from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) release 2.5; revised empirical orthogonal teleconnections (EOTs) and EOT acceptance criterion; updated sea surface temperature (SST) quality control procedures; revised SST anomaly (SSTA) evaluation methods; updated bias adjustments of ship SSTs using the Hadley Centre Nighttime Marine Air Temperature dataset version 2 (HadNMAT2); and buoy SST bias adjustment not previously made in v3b.
Tests show that the impacts of the revisions to ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 are dominant among all revisions and updates. The effect is to make SST 0.1°–0.2°C cooler north of 30°S but 0.1°–0.2°C warmer south of 30°S in ERSST.v4 than in ERSST.v3b before 1940. In comparison with the Met Office SST product [the Hadley Centre Sea Surface Temperature dataset, version 3 (HadSST3)], the ship SST bias adjustment in ERSST.v4 is 0.1°–0.2°C cooler in the tropics but 0.1°–0.2°C warmer in the midlatitude oceans both before 1940 and from 1945 to 1970. Comparisons highlight differences in long-term SST trends and SSTA variations at decadal time scales among ERSST.v4, ERSST.v3b, HadSST3, and Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2 (COBE-SST2), which is largely associated with the difference of bias adjustments in these SST products. The tests also show that, when compared with v3b, SSTAs in ERSST.v4 can substantially better represent the El Niño/La Niña behavior when observations are sparse before 1940. Comparisons indicate that SSTs in ERSST.v4 are as close to satellite-based observations as other similar SST analyses.
Blending TAC and BUFR Marine In Situ Data for ICOADS Near-Real-Time Release 3.0.2Abstract
This paper describes the new International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) near-real-time (NRT) release (R3.0.2), with greatly enhanced completeness over the previous version (R3.0.1). R3.0.1 had been operationally produced monthly from January 2015 onward, with input data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Telecommunication Systems (GTS) transmissions in the Traditional Alphanumeric Codes (TAC) format. Since the release of R3.0.1, however, many observing platforms have changed, or are in the process of transitioning, to the Binary Universal Form for Representation of Meteorological Data (BUFR) format. R3.0.2 combines input data from both BUFR and TAC formats. In this paper, we describe input data sources; the BUFR decoding process for observations from drifting buoys, moored buoys, and ships; and the data quality control of the TAC and BUFR data streams. We also describe how the TAC and BUFR streams were merged to upgrade R3.0.1 into R3.0.2 with duplicates removed. Finally, we compare the number of reports and spatial coverage of essential climate variables (ECVs) between R3.0.1 and R3.0.2. ICOADS NRT R3.0.2 shows both quantitative and qualitative gains from the inclusion of BUFR reports. The number of observations in R3.0.2 increased by nearly 1 million reports per month, and the coverage of buoy and ship sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on monthly 2° × 2° grids increased by 20%. The number of reported ECVs also increased in R3.0.2. For example, observations of SST and sea level pressure (SLP) increased by around 30% and 20%, respectively, as compared to R3.0.1, and salinity is a new addition to the ICOADS NRT product in R3.0.2.
Significance Statement
The International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) is the largest collection of surface marine observations spanning from 1662 to the present. A new version, ICOADS near-real-time 3.0.2, includes data transmitted in the Binary Universal Form for Representation of Meteorological Data (BUFR) format, in combination with Traditional Alphanumeric Codes (TAC) data. Many of the organizations that report observations in near–real time have moved to BUFR, so this update brings ICOADS into alignment with collections and archives of these international data distributions. By including the BUFR reports, the number of observations in the upgraded version of ICOADS increased by nearly one million reports per month and spatial coverage of buoy and ship SSTs increased by 20% over the previous version.
Abstract
This paper describes the new International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) near-real-time (NRT) release (R3.0.2), with greatly enhanced completeness over the previous version (R3.0.1). R3.0.1 had been operationally produced monthly from January 2015 onward, with input data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Telecommunication Systems (GTS) transmissions in the Traditional Alphanumeric Codes (TAC) format. Since the release of R3.0.1, however, many observing platforms have changed, or are in the process of transitioning, to the Binary Universal Form for Representation of Meteorological Data (BUFR) format. R3.0.2 combines input data from both BUFR and TAC formats. In this paper, we describe input data sources; the BUFR decoding process for observations from drifting buoys, moored buoys, and ships; and the data quality control of the TAC and BUFR data streams. We also describe how the TAC and BUFR streams were merged to upgrade R3.0.1 into R3.0.2 with duplicates removed. Finally, we compare the number of reports and spatial coverage of essential climate variables (ECVs) between R3.0.1 and R3.0.2. ICOADS NRT R3.0.2 shows both quantitative and qualitative gains from the inclusion of BUFR reports. The number of observations in R3.0.2 increased by nearly 1 million reports per month, and the coverage of buoy and ship sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on monthly 2° × 2° grids increased by 20%. The number of reported ECVs also increased in R3.0.2. For example, observations of SST and sea level pressure (SLP) increased by around 30% and 20%, respectively, as compared to R3.0.1, and salinity is a new addition to the ICOADS NRT product in R3.0.2.
Significance Statement
The International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) is the largest collection of surface marine observations spanning from 1662 to the present. A new version, ICOADS near-real-time 3.0.2, includes data transmitted in the Binary Universal Form for Representation of Meteorological Data (BUFR) format, in combination with Traditional Alphanumeric Codes (TAC) data. Many of the organizations that report observations in near–real time have moved to BUFR, so this update brings ICOADS into alignment with collections and archives of these international data distributions. By including the BUFR reports, the number of observations in the upgraded version of ICOADS increased by nearly one million reports per month and spatial coverage of buoy and ship SSTs increased by 20% over the previous version.
Abstract
This analysis estimates uncertainty in the NOAA global surface temperature (GST) version 5 (NOAAGlobalTemp v5) product, which consists of sea surface temperature (SST) from the Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) and land surface air temperature (LSAT) from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly version 4 (GHCNm v4). Total uncertainty in SST and LSAT consists of parametric and reconstruction uncertainties. The parametric uncertainty represents the dependence of SST/LSAT reconstructions on selecting 28 (6) internal parameters of SST (LSAT), and is estimated by a 1000-member ensemble from 1854 to 2016. The reconstruction uncertainty represents the residual error of using a limited number of 140 (65) modes for SST (LSAT). Uncertainty is quantified at the global scale as well as the local grid scale. Uncertainties in SST and LSAT at the local grid scale are larger in the earlier period (1880s–1910s) and during the two world wars due to sparse observations, then decrease in the modern period (1950s–2010s) due to increased data coverage. Uncertainties in SST and LSAT at the global scale are much smaller than those at the local grid scale due to error cancellations by averaging. Uncertainties are smaller in SST than in LSAT due to smaller SST variabilities. Comparisons show that GST and its uncertainty in NOAAGlobalTemp v5 are comparable to those in other internationally recognized GST products. The differences between NOAAGlobalTemp v5 and other GST products are within their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level.
Abstract
This analysis estimates uncertainty in the NOAA global surface temperature (GST) version 5 (NOAAGlobalTemp v5) product, which consists of sea surface temperature (SST) from the Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) and land surface air temperature (LSAT) from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly version 4 (GHCNm v4). Total uncertainty in SST and LSAT consists of parametric and reconstruction uncertainties. The parametric uncertainty represents the dependence of SST/LSAT reconstructions on selecting 28 (6) internal parameters of SST (LSAT), and is estimated by a 1000-member ensemble from 1854 to 2016. The reconstruction uncertainty represents the residual error of using a limited number of 140 (65) modes for SST (LSAT). Uncertainty is quantified at the global scale as well as the local grid scale. Uncertainties in SST and LSAT at the local grid scale are larger in the earlier period (1880s–1910s) and during the two world wars due to sparse observations, then decrease in the modern period (1950s–2010s) due to increased data coverage. Uncertainties in SST and LSAT at the global scale are much smaller than those at the local grid scale due to error cancellations by averaging. Uncertainties are smaller in SST than in LSAT due to smaller SST variabilities. Comparisons show that GST and its uncertainty in NOAAGlobalTemp v5 are comparable to those in other internationally recognized GST products. The differences between NOAAGlobalTemp v5 and other GST products are within their uncertainties at the 95% confidence level.
