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Ernest C. Kung

Abstract

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Ernest C. Kung
and
Taher A. Sharif

Abstract

It is shown that the recorded onset dates of the summer monsoon in southwestern India can be closely related functionally to the antecedent upper air conditions. The antecedent upper air conditions are represented by April mean values of the daily upper air parameters at 100 and 700 mb from 1958 to 1978. It is further demonstrated that the multi-regression scheme on the basis of such a functional relationship may be utilized in an objective forecast of the onset date. The forecasted dates are shown to be reasonably close to the recorded onset dates. Various aspects of the approach and scheme are discussed. Because of the time variations of the patterns of the general circulation, a constant updating of the regression equation should be an integral part of the multi-regression forecasting scheme.

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Su-Tzai Soong
and
Ernest C. Kung

Abstract

Short-period cycles in the large-scale atmospheric circulation were investigated with time series of kinetic energy, its generation and outflow, which were computed twice a day for a 5-year period over the North American Continent. The spectra were computed from the autocorrelation curves, and were compared with the red noise spectra to evaluate the statistical significance of the energy cycles.

The maxima of time spectra of different energy parameters show frequent agreement. The commonly reported kinetic energy cycles with periods of one to two weeks are observed; however, they are not statistically significant and also show very high year-to-year irregularity. Significant cycles with periods around 40 days and 2–4 days are also noted.

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