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Abstract
A numerical model is described for integrating the barotropic prediction equations to obtain forecasts of the displacement of a hurricane center. The model employs a fine grid which is centered over the hurricane and covers only the vortex circulation. Forecasts for Connie and Diane (1955) and Betsy (1956) are presented. Reduction of truncation errors by the use of a smaller grid mesh results in improved trajectory forecasts.
Abstract
A numerical model is described for integrating the barotropic prediction equations to obtain forecasts of the displacement of a hurricane center. The model employs a fine grid which is centered over the hurricane and covers only the vortex circulation. Forecasts for Connie and Diane (1955) and Betsy (1956) are presented. Reduction of truncation errors by the use of a smaller grid mesh results in improved trajectory forecasts.
Abstract
Equivalent-barotropic-model predictions of hurricane trajectories made with a 150-km grid mesh are presented. By a series of comparative tests, the results suggest that more accurate forecasts were obtained using density-weighted mean initial data than with 500-mb data. The importance of horizontal mesh size on the accuracy of the calculations is also shown.
Abstract
Equivalent-barotropic-model predictions of hurricane trajectories made with a 150-km grid mesh are presented. By a series of comparative tests, the results suggest that more accurate forecasts were obtained using density-weighted mean initial data than with 500-mb data. The importance of horizontal mesh size on the accuracy of the calculations is also shown.
It is believed that the severity of the storm hitting Canada on October 15, 1954 was due to the addition of an independent development to the dying hurricane Hazel. The problem of forecasting this event is discussed in the light of forecasts made at the time. The presence of a secondary development is verified.
It is believed that the severity of the storm hitting Canada on October 15, 1954 was due to the addition of an independent development to the dying hurricane Hazel. The problem of forecasting this event is discussed in the light of forecasts made at the time. The presence of a secondary development is verified.
