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Siebren de Haan
Gert-Jan Marseille
Paul de Valk
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John de Vries


Denial experiments, also denoted observing system experiments (OSEs), are used to determine the impact of an observing system on the forecast quality of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. When the impact is neutral or positive, new observations from this observing system may be admitted to an operational forecasting system based on that NWP model. A drawback of the method applied in most denial experiments is that it neglects the operational time constraint on the delivery of observations. In a 10-week twin experiment with the operational High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) at KNMI, the impact of additional ocean surface wind observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on the forecast quality of the model has been verified under operational conditions. In the experiment, the operational model was used as reference, parallel to an augmented system in which the ASCAT winds were assimilated actively. Objective verification of the forecast with independent wind observations from moored buoys and ASCAT winds revealed a slight improvement in forecast skill as measured by a decrease in observation-minus-forecast standard deviation in the wind components for the short range (up to 24 h). A subjective analysis in a case study showed a realistic deepening of a low pressure system over the North Atlantic near the coast of Ireland through the assimilation of scatterometer data that were verified with radiosonde observations over Ireland. Based on these results, the decision was made to include ASCAT in operations at the next upgrade of the forecasting system.

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