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Lisa-Ann Quandt, Julia H. Keller, Olivia Martius, and Sarah C. Jones

Abstract

The Euro–Russian atmospheric blocking pattern in the summer of 2010 was related to high-impact weather, including a mega–heat wave in Russia. A set of scenarios for the synoptic evolution during the onset, mature stage, and decay of the block are extracted from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble multimodel ensemble forecast. These scenarios represent the key features of the forecast variability of the block and of the resulting surface impacts. Two heat indices and a fire index are computed to highlight the forecast variability in societal impacts. The study is a proof of concept, showing how information about surface impacts can be derived from available operational ensemble forecasts in an effective manner, and pointing to possible difficulties in this approach. Comparing the forecast for the heat wave’s impact on large spatial domains, and on a near-gridpoint scale, identifies challenges forecasters may face when predicting the development of a heat wave.

Although the block’s onset was highly predictable, the increase in temperature and the extension of the heat-affected area differed between the scenarios. During the mature stage of the block, the variability of its western flank had a considerable influence on the precipitation and heat distribution. Since the blocking was maintained after the analyzed decay in two of three scenarios, the predictability of the decay was low in this forecast. The heat wave ended independently from the block’s decay, as the surface temperature and the impact indices decreased in all scenarios.

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