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Abstract
The record-breaking U.S. tornado outbreaks in the spring of 2011 prompt the need to identify long-term climate signals that could potentially provide seasonal predictability for U.S. tornado outbreaks. This study uses both observations and model experiments to show that a positive phase TransNiño may be one such climate signal. Among the top 10 extreme outbreak years during 1950–2010, seven years including the top three are identified with a strongly positive phase TransNiño. The number of intense tornadoes in April–May is nearly doubled during the top 10 positive TransNiño years from that during 10 neutral years. TransNiño represents the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the onset or decay phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A positive phase TransNiño is characterized by colder than normal SSTs in the central tropical Pacific and warmer than normal SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific. Modeling experiments suggest that warmer than normal SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific work constructively with colder than normal SSTs in the central tropical Pacific to force a strong and persistent teleconnection pattern that increases both the upper-level westerly and lower-level southwesterly over the central and eastern United States. These anomalous winds advect more cold and dry upper-level air from the high latitudes and more warm and moist lower-level air from the Gulf of Mexico converging into the east of the Rockies, and also increase both the lower-tropospheric (0–6 km) and lower-level (0–1 km) vertical wind shear values therein, thus providing large-scale atmospheric conditions conducive to intense tornado outbreaks over the United States.
Abstract
The record-breaking U.S. tornado outbreaks in the spring of 2011 prompt the need to identify long-term climate signals that could potentially provide seasonal predictability for U.S. tornado outbreaks. This study uses both observations and model experiments to show that a positive phase TransNiño may be one such climate signal. Among the top 10 extreme outbreak years during 1950–2010, seven years including the top three are identified with a strongly positive phase TransNiño. The number of intense tornadoes in April–May is nearly doubled during the top 10 positive TransNiño years from that during 10 neutral years. TransNiño represents the evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the onset or decay phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A positive phase TransNiño is characterized by colder than normal SSTs in the central tropical Pacific and warmer than normal SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific. Modeling experiments suggest that warmer than normal SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific work constructively with colder than normal SSTs in the central tropical Pacific to force a strong and persistent teleconnection pattern that increases both the upper-level westerly and lower-level southwesterly over the central and eastern United States. These anomalous winds advect more cold and dry upper-level air from the high latitudes and more warm and moist lower-level air from the Gulf of Mexico converging into the east of the Rockies, and also increase both the lower-tropospheric (0–6 km) and lower-level (0–1 km) vertical wind shear values therein, thus providing large-scale atmospheric conditions conducive to intense tornado outbreaks over the United States.
Abstract
The ocean surface latent heat flux (LHF) plays an essential role in global energy and water cycle variability. In this study, monthly LHF over global oceans during 1992–93 are compared among Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes, version 2 (GSSTF2), Hamburg Ocean–Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS), NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (NCEP), and da Silva et al. (da Silva). To find the causes for discrepancies of LHF, monthly 10-m wind speed (U 10m), 10-m specific humidity (Q 10m), and sea–air humidity difference (Q S − Q 10m) are also compared during the same period. The mean differences, standard deviations of differences, and temporal correlation of these monthly variables over global oceans during 1992–93 between GSSTF2 and each of the other three datasets are analyzed. The large-scale patterns of the 2-yr-mean fields for these variables are similar among these four datasets, but significant quantitative differences are found.
The temporal correlation is higher in the northern extratropics than in the south for all variables, with the contrast being especially large for da Silva as a result of more missing ship observations in the south. The da Silva dataset has extremely low temporal correlation and large differences with GSSTF2 for all variables in the southern extratropics, indicating that da Silva hardly produces a realistic variability in these variables. The NCEP has extremely low temporal correlation (0.27) and large spatial variations of differences with GSSTF2 for Q S − Q 10m in the Tropics, which causes the low correlation for LHF. Over the Tropics, the HOAPS mean LHF is significantly smaller than GSSTF2 by ∼31% (37 W m−2), whereas the other two datasets are comparable to GSSTF2. This is because the HOAPS has systematically smaller LHF than GSSTF2 in space, while the other two datasets have very large spatial variations of large positive and negative LHF differences with GSSTF2 to cancel and to produce smaller regional-mean differences. Based on comparison with high-quality flux observations, we conclude that the GSSTF2 latent heat flux, surface air humidity, and winds are likely to be more realistic than the other three flux datasets examined, although those of GSSTF2 are still subject to regional biases.
Abstract
The ocean surface latent heat flux (LHF) plays an essential role in global energy and water cycle variability. In this study, monthly LHF over global oceans during 1992–93 are compared among Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes, version 2 (GSSTF2), Hamburg Ocean–Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS), NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (NCEP), and da Silva et al. (da Silva). To find the causes for discrepancies of LHF, monthly 10-m wind speed (U 10m), 10-m specific humidity (Q 10m), and sea–air humidity difference (Q S − Q 10m) are also compared during the same period. The mean differences, standard deviations of differences, and temporal correlation of these monthly variables over global oceans during 1992–93 between GSSTF2 and each of the other three datasets are analyzed. The large-scale patterns of the 2-yr-mean fields for these variables are similar among these four datasets, but significant quantitative differences are found.
The temporal correlation is higher in the northern extratropics than in the south for all variables, with the contrast being especially large for da Silva as a result of more missing ship observations in the south. The da Silva dataset has extremely low temporal correlation and large differences with GSSTF2 for all variables in the southern extratropics, indicating that da Silva hardly produces a realistic variability in these variables. The NCEP has extremely low temporal correlation (0.27) and large spatial variations of differences with GSSTF2 for Q S − Q 10m in the Tropics, which causes the low correlation for LHF. Over the Tropics, the HOAPS mean LHF is significantly smaller than GSSTF2 by ∼31% (37 W m−2), whereas the other two datasets are comparable to GSSTF2. This is because the HOAPS has systematically smaller LHF than GSSTF2 in space, while the other two datasets have very large spatial variations of large positive and negative LHF differences with GSSTF2 to cancel and to produce smaller regional-mean differences. Based on comparison with high-quality flux observations, we conclude that the GSSTF2 latent heat flux, surface air humidity, and winds are likely to be more realistic than the other three flux datasets examined, although those of GSSTF2 are still subject to regional biases.
Abstract
Information on the turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat at the air–sea interface is essential in improving model simulations of climate variations and in climate studies. A 13.5-yr (July 1987–December 2000) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over global oceans has been derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) radiance measurements. This dataset, Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes, version 2 (GSSTF2), has a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude–longitude and a temporal resolution of 1 day. Turbulent fluxes are derived from the SSM/I surface winds and surface air humidity, as well as the 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, using a bulk aerodynamic algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory.
The GSSTF2 bulk flux model is validated by comparing hourly turbulent fluxes computed from ship data using the model with those observed fluxes of 10 field experiments over the tropical and midlatitude oceans during 1991–99. In addition, the GSSTF2 daily wind stress, latent heat flux, wind speed, surface air humidity, and SST compare reasonably well with those of the collocated measurements of the field experiments. The global distributions of 1988–2000 annual- and seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes show reasonable patterns related to the atmospheric general circulation and seasonal variations. Zonal averages of latent heat fluxes and input parameters over global oceans during 1992–93 have been compared among several flux datasets: GSSTF1 (version 1), GSSTF2, the Hamburg Ocean–Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS), NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, and one based on the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Significant differences are found among the five. These analyses suggest that the GSSTF2 latent heat flux, surface air humidity, and winds are likely to be more realistic than the other four flux datasets examined, although those of GSSTF2 are still subject to regional biases. The GSSTF2 is useful for climate studies and has been submitted to the sea surface turbulent flux project (SEAFLUX) for intercomparison studies.
Abstract
Information on the turbulent fluxes of momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat at the air–sea interface is essential in improving model simulations of climate variations and in climate studies. A 13.5-yr (July 1987–December 2000) dataset of daily surface turbulent fluxes over global oceans has been derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) radiance measurements. This dataset, Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes, version 2 (GSSTF2), has a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude–longitude and a temporal resolution of 1 day. Turbulent fluxes are derived from the SSM/I surface winds and surface air humidity, as well as the 2-m air and sea surface temperatures (SST) of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, using a bulk aerodynamic algorithm based on the surface layer similarity theory.
The GSSTF2 bulk flux model is validated by comparing hourly turbulent fluxes computed from ship data using the model with those observed fluxes of 10 field experiments over the tropical and midlatitude oceans during 1991–99. In addition, the GSSTF2 daily wind stress, latent heat flux, wind speed, surface air humidity, and SST compare reasonably well with those of the collocated measurements of the field experiments. The global distributions of 1988–2000 annual- and seasonal-mean turbulent fluxes show reasonable patterns related to the atmospheric general circulation and seasonal variations. Zonal averages of latent heat fluxes and input parameters over global oceans during 1992–93 have been compared among several flux datasets: GSSTF1 (version 1), GSSTF2, the Hamburg Ocean–Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS), NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, and one based on the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Significant differences are found among the five. These analyses suggest that the GSSTF2 latent heat flux, surface air humidity, and winds are likely to be more realistic than the other four flux datasets examined, although those of GSSTF2 are still subject to regional biases. The GSSTF2 is useful for climate studies and has been submitted to the sea surface turbulent flux project (SEAFLUX) for intercomparison studies.
