Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions from the operational regional nonhydrostatic TC forecast system of the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau (CWB) are examined for their sensitivities to initial and lateral boundary conditions. Five experiments are designed and discussed, each using a combination of different initial and lateral boundary conditions coming either from the CWB or the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system. Eight typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean with 51 cases in 2004 and 2005 are tested with the five designed experiments for the 3-day forecast. The average track forecasts are the best when both the initial and lateral boundary conditions are from the NCEP global forecast system. This reflects the generally superior performance of the NCEP global forecast system relative to that of the CWB. Using different lateral boundary conditions has a greater impact on the track than using different initial conditions. Diagnostics using piecewise inversion of potential vorticity perturbations are carried out to identify synoptic features surrounding the featured typhoon that impact the track the most in each experiment. For the two cases demonstrated with the largest track improvement using NCEP global fields, the diagnostics indicate that the prediction of the strength and extent of the subtropical high in the western Pacific plays the major role in affecting these storm tracks. Using the analysis and predictions of the CWB global forecast system as the initial and lateral boundary conditions produces an overintensified subtropical ridge in the regional TC forecast model. Because most of the typhoons studied are located in the southwestern peripheral of the western Pacific subtropical high, the stronger steering from the more intense and extended high system is the main cause of the poleward bias in the predicted typhoon tracks in the operational run, which uses the CWB global forecast fields. The study suggests that, when efforts are made to improve a regional TC forecast model, it is also critically important to improve the global forecast system that provides the lateral boundary and initial conditions to the regional system.

Abstract

During the Joint Tropical Rain Experiment of the Malaysian Meteorological Service and the University of Toronto, pulsating raindrop ensembles, hereafter pulses, were observed in and around Penang Island. Using a Doppler radar on 25 October 1990, a periodic variation of precipitation aloft 30 km from the radar site, with an approximate 8-min period, was established and seemed to be caused by the evolution and motion of horizontal inhomogeneities existing within the same cell. On 30 October 1990, using a new volume scanning strategy with a repetition cycle of 3.5 min, pulsations of the same frequency were observed up to 3 km above the radar and at the ground by a disdrometer. High concentrations of large drops were followed by high concentrations of successively smaller drops at the ground. This provides observational evidence to support the recent argument for using a time-varying release of precipitation-sized particles to model observed pulsating rainfall.

Many cases of nonsteady rain from convective clouds displayed repetition periods of between 8 and 25 min.

Abstract

Gaseous species and total suspended particles were measured at Kosan, Cheju Island, Korea, between 11 March and 19 April 1994. The concentrations of nonsea salt (nss) ions were higher than those measured in clean marine areas of Japan and other background marine areas of the world. In particular, the nss sulfate concentration was comparable to that measured in Seoul. The average SO₂ and NO _x concentrations were approximately 0.97 and 3.5 ppb, respectively, which were lower than those at other urban areas in Korea but higher than those of other remote areas in the world. In contrast, the average O₃ concentration was approximately 55 ppb, which is comparable to or higher than those at remote sites in Japan that were influenced by long-range transport of air pollutants. Half of the air parcels during the period were from northern China and about 30% of the air parcels from southern China. The main difference of air pollutant levels between the two areas was higher crustal species and lower nss sulfate concentrations for air parcels from northern China. The nss SO²⁻ ₄ concentrations had a strong correlation with nss K⁺, NH⁺ ₄ , and O₃ concentrations. In addition, the nss Ca²⁺ concentrations had a strong correlation with the nss K⁺ and nss Mg²⁺ concentrations. It was suggested that nss K⁺ had two sources:anthropogenic and crustal.