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Tomohito J. Yamada
,
Randal D. Koster
,
Shinjiro Kanae
, and
Taikan Oki

Abstract

This study reveals the mathematical structure of a statistical index, Ω, that quantifies similarity among ensemble members in a weather forecast. Previous approaches for quantifying predictability estimate separately the phase and shape characteristics of a forecast ensemble. The diagnostic Ω, on the other hand, characterizes the similarity (across ensemble members) of both aspects together with a simple expression. The diagnostic Ω is thus more mathematically versatile than previous indices.

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