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Qingnong Xiao, Liqiang Chen, and Xiaoyan Zhang


A tropical cyclone bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme is built in the Weather Research and Forecasting three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (WRF 3D-VAR). Experiments were conducted (21 experiments with BDA in parallel with another 21 without BDA) to assess its impacts on the predictions of seven Atlantic Ocean basin hurricanes observed in 2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) and in 2005 (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). In addition, its performance was compared with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane initialization scheme in a case study of Hurricane Humberto (2007). It is indicated that hurricane initialization with the BDA technique can improve the forecast skills of track and intensity in the Advanced Research WRF (ARW). Among the three hurricane verification parameters [track, central sea level pressure (CSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW)], BDA improves CSLP the most. The improvement of MSW is also considerable. The track has the smallest, but still noticeable, improvement. With WRF 3D-VAR, the initial vortex produced by BDA is balanced with the dynamical and statistical balance in the 3D-VAR system. It has great potential for improving the hurricane intensity forecast. The case study on Hurricane Humberto (2007) shows that BDA performs better than the GFDL bogus scheme in the ARW forecast for the case. Better definition of the initial vortex is the main reason for the advanced skill in hurricane track and intensity forecasting in this case.

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Xiaoyan Zhang, Jianping Huang, Gang Li, Yongwei Wang, Cheng Liu, Kaihui Zhao, Xinyu Tao, Xiao-Ming Hu, and Xuhui Lee


The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used in large-eddy simulation (LES) mode to investigate a lake-breeze case occurring on 12 June 2012 over the Lake Taihu region of China. Observational data from 15 locations, wind profiler radar, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to evaluate the WRF nested-LES performance in simulating lake breezes. Results indicate that the simulated temporal and spatial variations of the lake breeze by WRF nested LES are consistent with observations. The simulations with high-resolution grid spacing and the LES scheme have a high correlation coefficient and low mean bias when evaluated against 2-m temperature, 10-m wind, and horizontal and vertical lake-breeze circulations. The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains stable over the lake throughout the lake-breeze event, and the stability becomes even stronger as the lake breeze reaches its mature stage. The improved ABL simulation with LES at a grid spacing of 150 m indicates that the non-LES planetary boundary layer parameterization scheme does not adequately represent subgrid-scale turbulent motions. Running WRF fully coupled to a lake model improves lake-surface temperature and consequently the lake-breeze simulations. Allowing for additional model spinup results in a positive impact on lake-surface temperature prediction but is a heavy computational burden. Refinement of a water-property parameter used in the Community Land Model, version 4.5, within WRF and constraining the lake-surface temperature with observational data would further improve lake-breeze representation.

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