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Edwin B. Fawcett

and techniques anticipated during 1962 are outlined. Two approaches to developmentof a successful baroclinic forecast model are explained in light of implications for the future of operationalNWP at Suitland.1. Introduction This paper gives a progress report on operationalnumerical weather prediction (NWP) in the UnitedStates since the end of the first year at the JointNumerical Weather Prediction Unit, discussed by StaffMembers, JNWP Unit (1957). Information is includedon principal

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Russell J. Younkin, Jerrold A. LaRue, and Frederick Sanders

, in revised form 9 November 1964)ABSTRACT This article describes and illustrates an objective technique of forecasting clouds, precipitation andprecipitation amounts. The system is tailored to fit the specific operation of the National MeteorologicalCenter in the use of data routinely available. It attempts to eliminate or to alleviate a number of difficultieswhich have plagued other objective techniques. The method follows rather closely the earlier work of Frederick Sanders, but departs

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Frank H. Ruggiero, Keith D. Sashegyi, Rangarao V. Madala, and Sethu Raman

forecast period. In the second 6-h period, theaccuracy of the forecasts comes closer together, as theadiabatic initialized forecast becomes spun up. For thethird forecast period, the forecast from the adiabaticinitialization produces higher threat scores than all butthe 3-h forecast using the full diabatic initialization.This is because the precipitation is winding down asthe surface low moves out of the inner-grid domain.The technique essentially applies a constant diabaticcomponent for the first 90

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Mark L. Schrader

(1953) . Even today, the original Appleman technique forms the basis of the Air Force Global Weather Center’s contrail forecasting algorithm. Recently, some works ( Peters 1993 ; Hanson and Hanson 1995 ) have claimed improvements in contrail forecasting techniques, but the results are called into question by errors in the basic physics. This note provides a brief explanation of contrail formation theory and presents a simple derivation of the critical temperature of contrail formation for various

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Andrew M. E. Grose, Eric A. Smith, Hyo-Sang Chung, Mi-Lim Ou, Byung-Ju Sohn, and F. Joseph Turk

-changing atmosphere. This study investigates the prospects of using a pattern recognition technique to produce short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of convective rainfall using infrared GEO-satellite imagery. The concept of nowcasting of rain using radar data was formally introduced in the 1960s (e.g., Kessler 1966 ) and was rapidly assimilated in the 1970s [e.g., see Taylor and Browning (1974) , Browning (1979) , Browning's (1982) compilation on the subject of nowcasting]. Radar

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Russell L. Elsberry, Glenn G. Coltrane, and Paul L. Krueger Jr.

within theclasses x< 65, 66-100 and ~> 101 kt. Although not tested with a homogeneous set of forecasts using operationaldata rather than post-season data, the objective forecast technique appears to give results comparable to orbetter than recent official intensity forecasts, especially for the 72 h interval.1. Introduction Much of the attention in tropical cyclone forecastinghas been devoted to prediction of the movement of thestorm, because the damaging winds near the centerfrequently

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G. E. Hill

1968 G. E. H I L L 29Grid Telescoping in Numerical Weather Prediction G. E. I-IILL~Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, Bedford, Mass.(Manuscript received 28 July 1967, in revised form 11 September 1967) ABSTRACT A technique is presented as a means of treating problems in meteorology by numerical prediction on afine scale. The method

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Martin Hirschi, Christoph Spirig, Andreas P. Weigel, Pierluigi Calanca, Jörg Samietz, and Mathias W. Rotach

done 2 times per week; www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/mofc_multi/forecast/ ) by ECMWF using the Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS; Buizza et al. 2007 ), which provides a 32-day outlook of temperature, precipitation, and other variables. The system is a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model and applies an ensemble technique to sample initial-condition uncertainty (51-member ensemble). The MOFCs go along with 18 yr of hindcast data (5-member ensembles

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Qingnong Xiao, Liqiang Chen, and Xiaoyan Zhang

BDA technique, which mainly improves the hurricane vortex structure according to the hurricane concept model, results in significant improvement of the hurricane intensity forecast. To support the assertion, we take Hurricane Katrina at 0000 UTC 26 August 2005 as an example to compare the vortex structures in CT and GB ( Fig. 3 ). The CSLP and MSW errors are both reduced by BDA for Katrina initialized at 0000 UTC 26 August 2005. As shown in Fig. 3 , the hurricane positions of CT and GB are both

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Lin Tian, Gerald M. Heymsfield, Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Stephen Guimond, and Lihua Li

the HIWRAP radar. The VAD technique is computationally inexpensive, which makes it suitable for real-time retrievals of the mean wind field. These retrievals can be used for making real-time flight decisions, improving forecasts of storm evolution, and providing the vertical structure for general context in case studies. The VAD technique is compared with a dual-Doppler analysis technique that is based on the coplane method developed for ground-based radar. The main difference between the ground

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