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Tim Woollings, Abdel Hannachi, Brian Hoskins, and Andrew Turner

scale of weeks or even longer ( Straus et al. 2007 ). The issue of climate change has further enhanced interest in the subject, as it is suggested that the response to anthropogenic forcing may be felt as a change in the residence frequency of the most dominant regimes (e.g., Palmer 1999 ; Corti et al. 1999 ; Hsu and Zwiers 2001 ; Terray et al. 2004 ; Keeley et al. 2008 ). Preferred flow regimes have been identified from idealized low-order models ( Charney and Devore 1979 ) and intermediate

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Céline Bonfils, Philip B. Duffy, and David B. Lobell

), and an increase in dirt and asphalt roads to access agricultural fields might also be at the origin of some increases in nighttime surface temperature. The magnitude of the changes attributable to such anthropogenic effects are, however, still unknown. One way to study the effect of irrigation on California climate, while avoiding potential biases induced by elevation, different climatological regimes, and other spatially heterogeneous forcings, is to focus on the seasonality in observed

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R. Knutti, M. R. Allen, P. Friedlingstein, J. M. Gregory, G. C. Hegerl, G. A. Meehl, M. Meinshausen, J. M. Murphy, G.-K. Plattner, S. C. B. Raper, T. F. Stocker, P. A. Stott, H. Teng, and T. M. L. Wigley

1. Introduction Climate models forced with changing anthropogenic greenhouse gas, sulfur dioxide, and other aerosol emissions project global-mean surface air temperature to increase substantially in the future. The range of uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR) for the end of the twenty-first century (2100 relative to 1990) was 1.4°–5.8°C ( Cubasch et al. 2001 ) for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) nonintervention

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Ping Zhao, Phil Jones, Lijuan Cao, Zhongwei Yan, Shuyao Zha, Yani Zhu, Yu Yu, and Guoli Tang

as available metadata are applied to perform the homogeneity detection and the adjustment of the series for detected changepoints. The SAT data of over 400 stations across eastern China to the east of 110°E during 1951–2010, reconstructed and archived in NMIC ( Ren et al. 2012 ), are also used, and since 1960 the number of station series in this region exceeds 435. To examine the effects of homogeneity on results, the homogenized SAT data over this denser station network across eastern China (G

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Tian Zhou, Nathalie Voisin, Guoyong Leng, Maoyi Huang, and Ian Kraucunas

, and T. K. Tesfa , 2017 : Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model . Water Resour. Res. , 53 , 4253 – 4270 , . 10.1002/2016WR019767 Von Storch , H. , and F. W. Zwiers , 1999 : Statistical Analysis in Climate Research . Cambridge University Press, 496 pp. 10.1007/978-3-662-03744-7_2 Vörösmarty , C. J. , and D. L. Sahagian , 2000 : Anthropogenic disturbance of

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Marcia B. Baker and Gerard H. Roe

in making climate projections that inform climate policy choices over the coming decades and centuries. In this study we extend the investigation of RB07 to the time-dependent evolution of the PDF of the planetary mean surface temperature under the action of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Our goal is to identify general principles governing the evolving shape of the function h T ( T , t ), which we define as the probability density that the global mean surface temperature anomaly has value

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Elizabeth A. Barnes, Nicholas W. Barnes, and Lorenzo M. Polvani

changes in Earth's hydroclimate ( Wu et al. 2012 ) that would have occurred with unabated stratospheric ozone depletion. Looking to the future, the effects of stratospheric ozone recovery on Southern Hemisphere climate are expected to counteract the effects of greenhouse gas warming (e.g., Arblaster et al. 2011 ; Polvani et al. 2011a ; McLandress et al. 2011 ; Wilcox et al. 2012 ). Previous studies have focused on targeted, ozone-on–ozone-off simulations to determine the importance of past and

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Meixia Lv, Zhuguo Ma, and Naiming Yuan

1. Introduction Under the influences of climate change and intensive anthropogenic activities, the terrestrial water cycle has changed markedly, especially in dry regions with large populations ( Ahmed et al. 2014 ; Feng et al. 2018 ; Rodell et al. 2018 ; Scanlon et al. 2018 ). Fortunately, the terrestrial water storage (TWS) variation products from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites ( Tapley et al. 2004 ), which represent changes related to both climate

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Bettina C. Lackner, Andrea K. Steiner, Gabriele C. Hegerl, and Gottfried Kirchengast

multisatellite climatologies. The anticipated climate change signal is estimated from an ensemble of anthropogenically forced scenario runs of three global climate models (GCM) of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Meehl et al. 2007 ). Natural variability is based on preindustrial control simulations of the same models. The focus region of our study is the UTLS within 50°S–50°N, where the best RO data quality is provided ( Steiner et al. 2009 ). A

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Michael Winton, Stephen M. Griffies, Bonita L. Samuels, Jorge L. Sarmiento, and Thomas L. Frölicher

% yr −1 CO 2 increase experiment. As noted in the introduction, simulated changes in ocean circulation are quite uncertain. In particular, some of the changes are known to be influenced by resolution. Farneti et al. (2010) show that eddy effects in a high-resolution simulation cancel much of the mean flow change in the southern ocean, an effect that was not well represented by GFDL CM2.1’s eddy parameterization ( Farneti and Gent 2011 ). b. Model results with fixed and free currents Figure 2

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