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Geraint Vaughan, Bogdan Antonescu, David M. Schultz, and Christopher Dearden

because it occurred during the first intensive observation period (IOP 1) of the Tropopause Folding, Stratospheric Intrusions and Deep Convection (TROSIAD) and the Diabatic Influence on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Storms (DIAMET; Vaughan et al. 2015 ) projects when extra observations were available from aircraft and ground-based stations. Although a band of showers was forecast by the Met Office up to two days ahead, neither the location nor the tight organization of the convection was well

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Ben Harvey, John Methven, Chloe Eagle, and Humphrey Lean

found to be narrower than can be resolved by current NWP models. Therefore, the modeled frontal widths are typically set artificially by (implicit or explicit) numerical diffusive effects, rather than by resolved physical motions. The degree to which the prediction of associated high-impact weather is affected by this limitation is not understood. Operational local-area forecast models are now approaching convection-permitting grid spacings of O (1) km ( Clark et al. 2016 ). In such models deep

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Jesse Norris, Geraint Vaughan, and David M. Schultz

has formed, is reinitialized with a 4-km nested domain and the different diabatic factors are varied between simulations, subsequent to this time. Thus, this paper demonstrates how precipitation cores along a mature cold front of maritime origin vary, depending on differences in the synoptic and mesoscale flow environment. 2. Method Moist idealized baroclinic-wave simulations were performed with version 3.7.1 of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ( Skamarock et al

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Matthew R. Clark and Douglas J. Parker

, 288 – 296 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1958)015<0288:MOTITO>2.0.CO;2 . Gatzen , C. , 2011 : A 10-year climatology of cold-season narrow cold-frontal rainbands in Germany . Atmos. Res. , 100 , 366 – 370 , doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.09.018 . Green , A. , 2010 : From observations to forecasts—Part 7: A new meteorological monitoring system for the United Kingdom’s Met Office . Weather , 65 , 272 – 277 , doi: 10.1002/wea.649 . Grumm , R. H. , 2000 : Forecasting the precipitation associated

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Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Suzanne L. Gray, and John Methven

diabatic tracers can be interpreted as time integrals of diabatic tendencies along trajectories. Diabatic tracers of θ and PV have been used together in the analysis of forecast errors in upper-level Rossby waves ( Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2015 ). The idea behind diabatic tracers of θ and PV consists of the separation of the variable of interest φ (representing either θ or PV) into the sum of a materially conserved component , a diabatically generated component , and a residual : that is

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G. Lloyd, C. Dearden, T. W. Choularton, J. Crosier, and K. N. Bower

.1175/1520-0493(1919)47<95:OTSOMC>2.0.CO;2 . Bjerknes , J. , and H. Solberg , 1922 : Life cycles of cyclones and the polar front theory of atmospheric circulation. Geofys. Publ., 3, 18 pp . Brown , P. , and P. Francis , 1995 : Improved measurements of the ice water content in cirrus using a total-water probe . J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , 12 , 410 – 414 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0426(1995)012<0410:IMOTIW>2.0.CO;2 . Browning , K. A. , 1986 : Conceptual models of precipitation systems . Wea. Forecasting , 1

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