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Philip A. Lutzak

studies of undular bores elsewhere, summarizes a set of necessary conditions associated with the development of bores in this region and an operational technique for forecasting them. Particular attention is focused on the seasonal influences that produce these conditions, as they are unique to this region of North America and are also nearly optimal for producing a wave cloud signature visible in satellite images. 2. Theory a. Density current and bore properties In order for a frontal boundary to

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Keith D. Sherburn and Matthew D. Parker

unique radar signatures associated with HSLC severe convection (e.g., McAvoy et al. 2000 ; Grumm and Glazewski 2004 ; Barker 2006 ; Clark 2011 ), rather than exploring environmental characteristics. Conventional techniques for forecasting significant severe weather have been noted to perform poorly in HSLC environments ( Guyer and Dean 2010 ; R. Thompson 2012, personal communication). Additionally, the compressed nature of HSLC convection ( Davies 1990 ; Markowski and Straka 2000 ; McAvoy et al

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Nathalie Voisin, John C. Schaake, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

) describe a method of producing flood forecasts at two locations in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins in Bangladesh that the Flood Forecasting and Warning System of Bangladesh integrates in their automated system. The streamflow forecasts are derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecasts, Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 simulations, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH; Joyce et al. 2004

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JEROME SPAR

howthe synoptic analysis of these vectors may be used for 'quantitative precipitation forecasting. An example of thevector field and the precipitation forecast is given. Although the prognosticformuladoes not give correct pointvalues of the precipitation, reasonably good agreement is found between the distributions of forecast and observedprecipitation. The technique is probably too laborious for daily forecasting routine but may be useful in the evalu-ation of rainmaking experiments

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Lance M. Leslie and Greg J. Holland

FEBRUARY 1991 LANCE M. LESLIE AND GREG J. HOLLAND 425Predicting Regional Forecast Skill Using Single and Ensemble Forecast Techniques LANCE M. LESLIE AND GREG J. HOLLANDBureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia(Manuscript received 4 May 1990, in final form 25 August 1990) ABSTRACT The potential for predicting the skill of 36-h forecasts from the Australian region limited

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Sim D. Aberson

( Fig. 1a ). Stan made landfall earlier than forecast and dissipated over the mountainous terrain of Mexico 24 h after the initial time. No forecasts from 36 h onward, including the 36-h OFCL forecast of 90 kt, are verified in the currently used technique. In the second case, at 0600 UTC 11 November 2006, the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Gamma was forecast to remain at 25-kt intensity for 24 h before dissipation ( Fig. 1b ). The best track shows that the system remained a tropical

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A. N. Seidman

VOL. IO9~NO. 7 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW JULY 1981Averaging Techniques in Long-Range Weather Forecasting A. N. SEIDMANThe Aerospace Corporation, P.O. Box 92937, Los Angeles, CA 90009(Manuscript received 3 June 1980, in final form 30 December 1980)ABSTRACT A method is investigated for increasing the length of prediction time for intermediate-range forecasting(up to 30 days). The method

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Phillip E. Shafer and Henry E. Fuelberg

: Multivariate regression techniques applied to thunderstorm forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center. Preprints, Int. Conf. on Aerospace and Aeronautical Meteorology, Washington, DC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6–13 . Orville, R. E. , and Silver A. C. , 1997 : Lightning ground flash density in the contiguous United States: 1992-95. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 125 , 631 – 638 . 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0631:LGFDIT>2.0.CO;2 Orville, R. E. , Huffines G. R. , Burrows W. R. , Holle R. L. , and Cummins K. L

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Naila F. Raboudi, Boujemaa Ait-El-Fquih, Clint Dawson, and Ibrahim Hoteit

produced using the ensemble prediction system (EPS) technique ( Heaps 1983 ; Buizza and Palmer 1995 ; Buizza et al. 1999 ). Based on the chaos theory describing systems’ behavior that are highly sensitive to the initial conditions, the method assesses uncertainty in forecasts by considering a set of different forecasts based on a set of different initial conditions, instead of a single “deterministic” forecast ( Mel and Lionello 2014a , b , 2016 ). These initial conditions are designed to include

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Ruixin Yang

does offer insights for future directions of RI investigation with data mining techniques. For example, the POD and FAR criteria for RI forecasting enforce a two-dimensional search from the perspective of data mining for optimal results. One technical improvement on the experimental design is to use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), which combines the true positive rate and the false positive rate together to form a single performance measure ( Tan et al. 2006 ). With a single criterion

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