Search Results

You are looking at 11 - 20 of 24 items for :

  • Forecasting techniques x
  • Annual Weather Summaries in Monthly Weather Review x
  • Refine by Access: Content accessible to me x
Clear All
James L. Franklin, Lixion A. Avila, Jack L. Beven, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

in flood damage in south Florida caused, in part, by the precursor disturbance to Tropical Storm Leslie. Section 2 below describes the 2000 season's tropical and subtropical cyclones that attained at least minimal tropical storm strength (34 kt). Weaker tropical cyclones and other tropical weather systems are discussed in section 3 . Section 4 presents a verification of National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecasts, and section 5 offers some concluding discussion about the 2000 season

Full access
Richard J. Pasch and Lixion A. Avila

within a few hundred kilometers of the U.S. coastline) weather radar observations. The vast majority of satellite information during the 1996 season came from the geostationary satellite GOES-8. Position and intensity estimates using satellite data are obtained by using the Dvorak (1984) technique. Most of the aerial reconnaissance was accomplished by the “Hurricane Hunters” of the U.S. Air Force Reserve Unit. Reconnaissance aircraft are routinely deployed into Atlantic tropical cyclones that

Full access
James L. Franklin, Richard J. Pasch, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven II, Miles B. Lawrence, Stacy R. Stewart, and Eric S. Blake

extratropical stages. The tracks for the season’s tropical storms and hurricanes are shown in Fig. 1 (see ). 1 For storms east of 55°W longitude, or those not threatening land, the primary (and often sole) source of information is geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellite imagery, interpreted using the Dvorak (1984) technique. For systems posing a threat to land, in situ observations are also generally available from aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted

Full access
Max Mayfield and Edward N. Rappaport

hurricanes, Douglas and Fausto, reached category 3 or higher status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) ( Simpson 1974 ) with estimated 1-min sustained winds of at least 50 m s −1 . A summary of 1996 tropical storm and hurricane statistics is shown in Table 1 . Section 2 briefly describes the database available to the NHC. Section 3 evaluates 1996 NHC forecast quality. Section 4 describes the season’s cyclones and section 5 recaps the highlights. 2. Best tracks The

Full access
Miles B. Lawrence, Lixion A. Avila, Jack L. Beven, James L. Franklin, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

using all available data. The best track is a table of 6-hourly estimates of the cyclone's center position, maximum 1-min wind speed (10 m above the surface), and minimum sea level pressure. 2 With the exception of a few aerial reconnaissance flights, all of this season's best track data were derived from satellite data and occasional land and ship reports. The method for estimating the maximum 1-min wind speed from satellite imagery is the Dvorak technique ( Dvorak 1984 ), which uses subjective

Full access
Richard J. Pasch, Lixion A. Avila, and John L. Guiney

Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) and to the local National Weather Service forecast offices. These include reports of peak wind gusts of 104 kt near North Carolina State Port at 0138 UTC and 100 kt at Wrightsville Beach at 1951 UTC 27 August. Rainfall totals of about 200–280 mm were recorded in portions of eastern North Carolina. Storm tides of 1.5–2.4 m above normal were reported mainly in eastern beaches of Brunswick County, North Carolina, while a storm surge of 1.8 m was reported

Full access
Mark A. Lander, Eric J. Trehubenko, and Charles P. Guard

low when compared to ship reports. Attempts to apply Hebert and Poteat’s (1975) techniques for estimating the intensity of subtropical cyclones to these systems were not successful. To address the problem of underestimating the intensity of TCs as they undergo extratropical transition, satellite forecasters at the JTWC in conjunction with Office of Naval Research–supported researchers at the University of Guam devised a technique ( Miller and Lander 1997 ) for estimating the intensity of

Full access
Lixion A. Avila, Richard J. Pasch, Jack L. Beven, James L. Franklin, Miles B. Lawrence, Stacy R. Stewart, and Jiann-Gwo Jiing

when a TC is a threat to land, such as in the cases of Hurricane Juliette and Tropical Storm Lorena of 2001. The primary data source, however, is imagery from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and polar-orbiting weather satellite imagery, from which position and intensity estimates are obtained using the Dvorak (1984) technique. A recent study by Brown and Franklin (2002) indicates that nearly half of Dvorak satellite-based intensity estimates fall within 7 kt of

Full access
J. Korshover and J. K. Angell

States east of100-W. Presented are maps showing, by month andfor the year 1981 as a whole, the number of stagnationdays in this region, as well as the average number ofstagnation days during the period 1936-75. Comparison of the two sets of data allows one to estimatehow typical a stagnation year 1981 was.2. Procedures The method used herein to delineate areas of stagnation is mostly objective, but also partly subjective,and other techniques might yield slightly different.results. Basically, the

Full access
Mark A. Lander and Charles P. Guard

1. Introduction This summary of 1997 western North Pacific, north Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones (TCs) was compiled from the archives of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam ( JTWC 1997 ). The JTWC is a joint U.S. Navy–Air Force activity with a forecast area of responsibility that extends from 180° westward to the coast of Africa, north and south of the equator. Seventy percent of the world's TCs develop in this area. The Naval Pacific Meteorology and

Full access