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Mirjam Hirt, Stephan Rasp, Ulrich Blahak, and George C. Craig

.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0527:TRDOEM>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0527:TRDOEM>2.0.CO;2 Wernli , H. , M. Paulat , M. Hagen , and C. Frei , 2008 : SAL—A novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 136 , 4470 – 4487 , https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2415.1 . 10.1175/2008MWR2415.1 Wernli , H. , C. Hofmann , and M. Zimmer , 2009 : Spatial forecast verification methods intercomparison project: Application of the SAL technique . Wea. Forecasting

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Paolo Ghinassi, Georgios Fragkoulidis, and Volkmar Wirth

; Fragkoulidis et al. 2018 ). Furthermore, it has been argued that the existence of RWPs has implications for predictability ( Lee and Held 1993 ; Grazzini and Vitart 2015 ), which is particularly relevant in the case of high-impact weather. The importance of RWPs has motivated the development of various techniques for their identification and analysis. These techniques include the famous Hovmöller diagram ( Hovmöller 1949 ), the analysis of eddy kinetic energy (short EKE; Chang and Orlanski 1993 ), the

Open access
Christian Barthlott and Corinna Hoose

.g., heat bubble, cold pool, mountain) is needed to initiate convection. As was pointed out by Noppel et al. (2010) , such idealized simulations often show different sensitivities of aerosol–cloud interactions than the simulation of real cases. In this paper, we expand this line of investigation by performing convection-resolving simulations of real weather events, but applying a novel technique of systematically modifying temperature profiles of the initial and boundary data. The modified temperature

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Andreas Schlueter, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Vogel

1. Introduction Rainfall variability substantially affects societies in northern tropical Africa ( Sultan et al. 2005 ). More than 96% of cultivated land in sub-Saharan Africa is rain-fed ( FAO 2016 ). Despite this, major operational global weather prediction models still fail to deliver skillful short-range precipitation forecasts over this region ( Vogel et al. 2018 ). This corroborates the need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes involved in the generation of

Open access
Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

wave breaking toward the end of the life cycle resulted in the formation of a cutoff cyclone over Europe, which led to the heavy precipitation event. The rain was poorly forecast by the operational centers even on the relatively short time scale of a few days ( Grazzini and van der Grijn 2002 ). Assuming that large-scale and long-lived dynamical features should generally be predictable on a time scale longer than just a few days, this suggest that there may be room for improvements concerning the

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Thomas Engel, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Gregor Pante, and Jan Bliefernicht

precipitation events is based on 6-hourly data of temperature, wind, and humidity from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim, hereafter ERA-I; Dee et al. 2011 ). ERA-I covers the time period from 1979 to present with a horizontal resolution of 0.75° × 0.75° latitude–longitude and 60 vertical levels up to 0.1 hPa. The events will be assessed with regard to their anomalous total precipitable water (TPW) content with respect to the 1979–2014 period

Open access
Jacopo Riboldi, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Heather M. Archambault

. Hewson , 2007 : African easterly waves during 2004—Analysis using objective techniques . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 135 , 1251 – 1267 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3343.1 . 10.1175/MWR3343.1 Binder , H. , M. Boettcher , H. Joos , and H. Wernli , 2016 : The role of warm conveyor belts for the intensification of extratropical cyclones in Northern Hemisphere winter . J. Atmos. Sci. , 73 , 3997 – 4020 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1 . 10.1175/JAS-D-15-0302.1 Bosart , L. F. , and G

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