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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

imposed allowing land surfaces to warm and the atmospheric circulation to adjust to the changes in radiative properties. The other model is the European Centre-Hamburg model, version 4.5 (ECHAM4.5; Roeckner et al. 1996 ), and we use a 24-member ensemble from 1950 on available in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society Data Library ( ). We also use the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the Interim European Centre

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Johnna M. Infanti and Ben P. Kirtman

newly formed multi-institutional, multimodel ensemble system for intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) prediction, which includes models from nine institutional partners ( Kirtman et al. 2014 ). The choice of this particular set of models is motivated by the availability of phase-1 data and the potential for inclusion of additional fields and improvements to be made with later phases. The NMME system is used in real time by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction

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