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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

imposed allowing land surfaces to warm and the atmospheric circulation to adjust to the changes in radiative properties. The other model is the European Centre-Hamburg model, version 4.5 (ECHAM4.5; Roeckner et al. 1996 ), and we use a 24-member ensemble from 1950 on available in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society Data Library ( http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.FD/.ECHAM4p5/.History/.MONTHLY/ ). We also use the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the Interim European Centre

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Johnna M. Infanti and Ben P. Kirtman

newly formed multi-institutional, multimodel ensemble system for intraseasonal-to-interannual (ISI) prediction, which includes models from nine institutional partners ( Kirtman et al. 2014 ). The choice of this particular set of models is motivated by the availability of phase-1 data and the potential for inclusion of additional fields and improvements to be made with later phases. The NMME system is used in real time by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction

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M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert, and R. Seager

). These included remote effects of tropical sea surface temperatures, land use practices, and the potential feedbacks that abundant soil-related aerosols may have exerted on rainfall. An important role for random atmospheric internal variability has also been proposed ( Hoerling et al. 2009 ). However, since the 1930s, summer rainfall has shown less severe declines in the 1950s and 1970s, while the last two decades were noted mostly by abundant summer rainfall (e.g., Wang et al. 2009 ). Looking at

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John M. Peters, Christopher J. Nowotarski, and Gretchen L. Mullendore

of supercell updrafts either, and the connection between helical flow in supercell updrafts and entrainment remains purely speculative. Of course, rigorous tests of either of these hypotheses were nearly impossible at the time, since simulations of deep convection only begin to develop a realistic inertial subrange of turbulence when the horizontal grid spacing is less than 250 m (e.g., Lebo and Morrison 2015 ), and computational resources largely precluded the use of grid spacing less than 1 km

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