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Dale R. Durran, Patrick A. Reinecke, and James D. Doyle

1. Introduction The development of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models over the last two decades has made deterministic forecasts using horizontal grid spacings of about 5 km available to the operational and research communities. Nevertheless, the predictability of the mesoscale features captured in such forecasts remains unclear. Early investigations of predictability ( Lorenz 1969 ) suggested that atmospheric circulations with characteristic scales of 20–40 km would have very

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Zhiyong Meng, Fuqing Zhang, Paul Markowski, Duochang Wu, and Kun Zhao

of squall lines that are maintained by lifting over a frontal surface in an actual environment with cloud-resolving numerical simulations is an open question. The current study performs convection-permitting numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to examine the formation and evolution of the bowing process for a squall line that occurred on a quasi-stationary front in spring 2007 in South China. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2

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Gökhan Sever and Yuh-Lang Lin

1. Introduction When tropical cyclones impinge on mesoscale mountains, such as the Appalachians in the United States, the mountainous islands of the Caribbean Sea, La Réunion and the Madagascar islands of the Indian Ocean, and the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan, many of them [e.g., Hurricane Ivan (2004), Hurricane Jeanne (2004), Tropical Cyclone Gamede (2007), Typhoon Morakot (2009), respectively] result in heavy precipitation. The devastating property damage and loss of lives resulting

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Christina Klasa, Marco Arpagaus, André Walser, and Heini Wernli

. Odins , and J. W. Nielsen-Gammon , 2006 : Mesoscale predictability of an extreme warm-season precipitation event . Wea. Forecasting , 21 , 149 – 166 , . 10.1175/WAF909.1 Zhang , F. , N. Bei , R. Rotunno , C. Snyder , and C. C. Epifanio , 2007 : Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Convection-permitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics . J. Atmos. Sci. , 64 , 3579 – 3594 ,

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John R. Lawson

theoretical predictability to operational NWP has yielded great insight into potential forecast-skill limits: for example, those associated with low-frequency variability ( Palmer 1988 ), extratropical cyclones ( Zhang et al. 2002 ; McMurdie and Ancell 2014 ), mesoscale convective systems ( Wandishin et al. 2008 , 2010 ; Rodwell et al. 2013 ; Durran and Weyn 2016 ; Lillo and Parsons 2017 ), supercells ( Cintineo and Stensrud 2013 ; Flora et al. 2018 ), tornadogenesis ( Zhang et al. 2016 ; Coffer et

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Tsz Yan Leung, Martin Leutbecher, Sebastian Reich, and Theodore G. Shepherd

order for the fast mesoscale uncertainty growth to be accurately captured within the model. Based on Skamarock (2004) , this would suggest a grid resolution 7 times finer than typical of today, i.e., on the order of a few kilometers, after accounting for the need for a dissipation range. Pushing NWP models to such a resolution can be anticipated to provide a more realistic description of small-scale error growth and thus of the uncertainty in the forecast, even when the initial errors are not

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Jung Hoon Shin and Da-Lin Zhang

response to interaction with upper-level troughs ( Harr and Elsberry 2000 ; Klein et al. 2000 ; Ritchie and Elsberry 2007 ). Despite the considerable research, our understanding of ET is still limited owing to the complex interaction between a warm-core TC and midlatitude baroclinic systems. In particular, few detailed observations are available over vast oceans, where most ET events take place, for understanding mesoscale processes leading to the intensity and structural changes of TCs during ET

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Brett T. Hoover

made to determine the sensitivity of a model forecast to a particular feature of the initial state by prescribing perturbations to that feature based on intuition and then observing the result on the forecast (e.g., Komaromi et al. 2011 ); this is sometimes characterized as a more robust “sensitivity study” by including several different kinds of perturbation experiments in an attempt to make the results seem less anecdotal. The advantage of an adjoint model is that the sensitivity gradients

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Takamichi Iguchi, Teruyuki Nakajima, Alexander P. Khain, Kazuo Saito, Toshihiko Takemura, Hajime Okamoto, Tomoaki Nishizawa, and Wei-Kuo Tao

. Khain , K. Saito , T. Takemura , and K. Suzuki , 2008 : Modeling the influence of aerosols on cloud microphysical properties in the East Asia region using a mesoscale model coupled with a bin-based cloud microphysics scheme . J. Geophys. Res. , 113 , D14215 , doi:10.1029/2007JD009774 . Ikawa , M. , and K. Saito , 1991 : Description of a non-hydrostatic model developed at the Forecast Research Department of the MRI. MRI Tech. Rep. 28, 238 pp. [Available online at http

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Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Biju Thomas, and Isaac Ginis

1. Introduction The GFDL hurricane modeling system is a multidecade project initiated in the 1970s during the early years of numerical weather prediction, when it became clear that global models might have limitations in simulating mesoscale systems. The GFDL model was one of the first 3D regional models developed, and the foremost research hurricane model when developed for process studies ( Kurihara and Tuleya 1974 ). During the next two decades, it gradually became more sophisticated, with

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