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David R. Ryglicki, James D. Doyle, Daniel Hodyss, Joshua H. Cossuth, Yi Jin, Kevin C. Viner, and Jerome M. Schmidt

.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2 Rozoff , C. M. , C. S. Velden , J. Kaplan , J. P. Kossin , and A. J. Wimmers , 2015 : Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification with passive microwave observations . Wea. Forecasting , 30 , 1016 – 1038 , . 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00109.1 Ryglicki , D. R. , and R. E. Hart , 2015 : An investigation of center-finding techniques for

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T. Ghosh and T. N. Krishnamurti

the model forecasts are the sample observations and the average of these forecasts is the sample mean. Another way of looking at this is to regard every model forecast as an estimate of the event to be forecasted, and the simple mean of the results is a standard combination of those estimates. This notion was also expressed in the works of Leslie and Fraedrich (1990) , Mundell and Rupp (1995) , and Goerss (2000) , who examined tropical cyclone track forecasts. These studies show that a

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