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Robert A. Houze Jr.

probabilities of extreme weather and heavy precipitation at specific times and locations will become an increasingly feasible goal for landfalling cyclones. In addition, prediction of sudden and rapid changes in storm intensity remains perhaps the greatest challenge in tropical cyclone preparation and warning. Rapid intensity changes often occur in conjunction with rapid reorganization of the cyclone’s mesoscale cloud and precipitation structures. Realistic simulation of the clouds and precipitation

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Peter Jan van Leeuwen

certain balances should be preserved (e.g., in atmospheric data assimilation the data-assimilation step should not introduce strong gravity waves since these tend to ruin the weather forecast). Up until recently this problem was solved by projection of the analyzed field on the so-called slow manifold, mainly related to geostrophy. However, as mentioned above, at higher resolution the coherent nonlinear structures follow other balances, which are not well known. In fact, the gravity waves become an

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Robert Wood

to be important for driving small-scale turbulent enhancement near cloud top, which enhances entrainment, and this has been used to propose new or modified w * entrainment closures [Eq. (5) ]. These include modifications to the buoyancy jump term Δ b (e.g., Nicholls and Turton 1986 ) and the turbulence production term W ( Lock 1998 ) rather than the entrainment efficiency term A per se. Other factors affecting cloud-top entrainment in stratocumulus are the specifics of whether the TKE is

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