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Marc A. Byrne, Arlene G. Laing, and Charles Connor

data are not easily accessible and, in many cases, are incomplete. Wind data are extrapolated sometimes from a single observation from a weather station tens of kilometers away ( Barberi et al. 1990 ; Macedonio et al. 1994 ; Hill et al. 1998 ). This is a serious problem because the simplistic wind assumption neglects a major impact on deposition location. Much of the research on tephra dispersion involving atmospheric models has focused on aviation interests. The Volcanic Ash Forecast and

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Wei Zhang, Yee Leung, and Johnny C. L. Chan

, and motion of the TC will change dramatically during the landfall process. Improved forecasting of TC landfall provides many potential benefits for coastal communities. Landfall has, therefore, attracted great attention from scientists in recent years, after it was highlighted by the U.S. Weather Research Program ( Marks and Shay 1998 ). Considerable research has investigated the seasonal or annual forecasts of TC landfall frequency in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean basins

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Haiyan Jiang, Jeffrey B. Halverson, Joanne Simpson, and Edward J. Zipser

verify this prediction index. A comparison with surface rain gauge observations shows that the mean error of the forecast TC overland rain is 9.2%. According to this case study, the limitation of this technique is mainly associated with storms that show large changes in the rainfall magnitude and storm translation speed before and after landfall. This study only uses factors related to the storm itself (rainfall history, storm size, and translation speed) to predict the TC overland rain. No

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Masaru Inatsu, Tamaki Suematsu, Yuta Tamaki, Naoto Nakano, Kao Mizushima, and Mizuki Shinohara

midtropospheric streamfunction in a quasigeostrophic framework ( Kravtsov et al. 2005 ; Kondrashov et al. 2006 ). Kravtsov et al. (2016 , hereinafter K16 ) extended their idea to sea level pressure (SLP) data, which was named the SLP emulator. The forecast data with the SLP emulator produces independent realizations of SLP variability, quite similar to that observed, with regard to several statistical measures including spatial patterns of bandpass- and low-pass-filtered variability as well as

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Brian H. Tang and Nick P. Bassill

probability distributions . J. Geophys. Res. , 110 , D19109 , . 10.1029/2005JD005899 Sheridan , P. , 2011 : Review of techniques and research for gust forecasting and parameterisation forecasting. UKMO Forecasting Research Tech. Rep. 570, 19 pp. Spark , E. , and G. J. Connor , 2004 : Wind forecasting for the sailing events at the Sydney 2000 Olympic and Paralympic Games . Wea. Forecasting , 19 , 181 – 199 ,

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Mark L. Morrissey and J. Scott Greene

with k terms and the true density function. In essence, the k th term should be included in the expansion only if J ( k ) < J ( k − 1). A summary of the technique is given by Jiang and Provost (2011) . This study does not use this method, as our objective is to observe the quality of various “fits” of the expansion to data even past the “optimized” number of terms. 3. Experiment To investigate the utility of the three expansions to produce a tractable, accurate function for the wind speed

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Heather Dawn Reeves, Alexander V. Ryzhkov, and J. Krause

) cool-season quantitative precipitation forecasting: Recommendations from a USWRP workshop . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 86 , 1619 – 1632 , doi: 10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1619 . Ramer , J. , 1993 : An empirical technique for diagnosing precipitation type from model output. Preprints, Fifth Int. Conf. on Aviation Weather Systems , Vienna, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 227–230 . Rauber , R. M. , L. S. Olthoff , and M. K. Ramamurthy , 2000 : The relative importance of warm rain and melting processes

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Robert E. Nicholas and David S. Battisti

.875°–110.625°W, and not to the watershed boundary. A complete explanation of the merging technique is given in appendix A . This 104-yr rainfall index meets both of our initial criteria (length and capturing the most recent drought) for a record of Yaqui precipitation. A number of additional climate datasets were used in our analysis. A yearly index of monsoon onset date, defined as the number of days after 1 May on which rainfall exceeds 1 mm day −1 for 5 consecutive days, was calculated for the Yaqui

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Jason C. Knievel, Daran L. Rife, Joseph A. Grim, Andrea N. Hahmann, Joshua P. Hacker, Ming Ge, and Henry H. Fisher

are needed to cover typical mesoscale NWP domains at high resolution. We keep the process simple and minimize vulnerability from unreliable sources of data. To demonstrate how the MODIS-based composites are created and how they can be used in NWP, we focus on New England and the mid-Atlantic, and apply the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the sea breeze, a phenomenon that is sensitive to SST (e.g., Clowes 1917 ; Jeffreys 1922 ; Schmidt 1947 ; Neumann and Mahrer 1971

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Gert-Jan Duine, Thierry Hedde, Pierre Roubin, and Pierre Durand

has been developed using a dichotomous forecast verification principle ( Wilks 2011 ) to optimize a threshold, with the goal to improve the nowcast of the down-valley flow presence or absence. To verify the method, a combination of permanent and temporary measurements has been used, with the latter deployed during KASCADE only. This paper is organized as follows: In sections 2a and 2b the measurement strategy and the general wind behavior in the CV observed during the KASCADE campaign are

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