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Adrienne Tivy, Bea Alt, Stephen Howell, Katherine Wilson, and John Yackel

coincident El Niño and positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) episodes. The goal of this study is to improve seasonal or long-range (3-month lead) forecasts for the spring opening of the shipping route through Hudson Bay. A predictive model is developed using multiple linear regression techniques. More than 1500 time series representing dominant modes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic variability, local climate, and sea ice conditions are tested as potential predictors and are described

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Yulia R. Gel

application of the discussed approaches to the bias correction of 48-h MM5 forecasts of surface temperature in the Pacific Northwest. The proposed methods are compared with each other and the grid-based “obs-based” method of Wedam et al. (2005) in terms of mean absolute error (MAE). In addition, section 3 reports the results on the “improve to hurt” statistics of the proposed techniques, that is, the number of cases when the bias has been removed or added at a site of interest. The paper concludes

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Le Bao, Tilmann Gneiting, Eric P. Grimit, Peter Guttorp, and Adrian E. Raftery

1. Introduction Forecasts of wind direction have varied and important uses, ranging from air pollution management to aircraft and ship routing and recreational boating. However, wind direction is an angular variable that takes values on the circle, as opposed to other weather quantities, such as temperature, quantitative precipitation, or wind speed, which are linear variables that take values on the real line. As a result, traditional postprocessing techniques for forecasts from numerical

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John F. Henz

1284 JOURNAl, OF APPI, IED METEOROLOGY Vo~.uM~,llAn Operational Technique of Forecasting Thunderstorms Along the Lee Slopes of a Mountain Range JoH~ F. HEsz Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80521 (Manuscript received 19 May 1972, in revised form 3 Au~st 1972) ABSTRACT The lee slopes of the Rocky Mouut~ius from Montana

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Seoyeon Lee and Kwang-Yul Kim

Stone P. , 1988 : Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model . J. Geophys. Res. , 93 , 9341 – 9364 , doi: 10.1029/JD093iD08p09341 . Hewitson, B. C. , and Crane R. G. , 1996 : Climate downscaling: Techniques and application . Climate Res. , 7 , 85 – 95 , doi: 10.3354/cr007085 . Hoskins, B. J. , 2013 : The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: A stimulus for our science . Quart

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W. E. Baker, R. Atlas, M. Halem, and J. Susskind

1544 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 112A Case Study of Forecast Sensitivity to Data and Data Analysis Techniques W. E. BAKER, R. ATLAS, M. HALEM AND J. SUSSKINDLaboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, NASA-Goddard $lmce Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771(lvlanuscript received 5 July 1983, in final form 30 March 1984)ABSTRACT In this study we examine the sensitivity of forecast skill to

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Maria E. B. Frediani, Thomas M. Hopson, Joshua P. Hacker, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Luca Delle Monache, and Francois Vandenberghe

outages, such as when areas of high wind speed are predicted at the incorrect location. The outage prediction model currently operates with regional deterministic NWP forecasts, and the potential to obtain ensemble wind speed predictions (thus accounting for weather variability) to drive the power outage prediction model at no additional computational cost motivated the development of this analog technique. With wind speed being the most important nonstatic variable in outage prediction model, the

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Jonathan M. Wilkinson

; Ebert 2009 ; Clark et al. 2010 ) and a range of neighborhoods from 12 to 96 km. Lynn et al. (2015) found that the ETS increased with increasing neighborhood size. However, as far as can be ascertained from the literature, no measure has been able to show what value such forecasts have above large-scale indices. In this manuscript, a new technique for determining the accuracy of lightning forecasts is developed and illustrated using UKV model lightning forecasts with the McCaul et al. (2009

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Peter A. Stamus, Frederick H. Carr, and David P. Baumhefner

JANUARY 1992 STAMUS ET AL. 149Application of a Scale-Separation Verification Technique to Regional Forecast Models PETER A. STAMUS*NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado FREDERICK H. CARRSchool of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma DAVID P. BAUMHEFNERNational Center for Atmospheric Research, * Boulder, Colorado

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Yunsung Hwang, Adam J. Clark, Valliappa Lakshmanan, and Steven E. Koch

operational concepts for managing strategic traffic flow, including examination of how improved weather data can aid traffic management initiatives efficiently ( Song et al. 2008 ). For short-term prediction of convection for route-planning applications, frequently updating high-resolution forecasts of convection are needed (i.e., nowcasts). To address this need, since about the early 1990s, various nowcasting techniques have been developed that rely on extrapolation (EXT) of observed convection as

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