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David E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, and David A. Robinson

experiment, “historicalNat,” used natural external forcings only, which include solar irradiance and volcanic gases. The second experiment, “historical,” used both natural and anthropogenic forcing; the latter includes long-lived greenhouse gases, aerosols and chemically active gases, though not all models include the identical suite of anthropogenic forcing agents. Simulated monthly SCE that excluded any time-varying forcing came from long-duration runs under the CMIP5 preindustrial control experiment

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Zaitao Pan, Xiaodong Liu, Sanjiv Kumar, Zhiqiu Gao, and James Kinter

between the historical and historicalNat experiments. Figure 12 compares trends under different scenarios over different periods and seasons. The GHG forcing only has strong warming effects (0.12°–0.22°C decade −1 ) that may have partly compensated for cooling effects from the natural forcing in the all-forcing historical experiment. The historical experiment that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic forcing resulted in moderate warming as seen in the historical experiment. Fig . 12

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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Yan Jin, Bohar Singh, and Xiaoqin Yan

sort of “upper bound” for radiative forcing on coupled land–atmosphere responses in the CMIP5 dataset. RCP85 is characterized by high ongoing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, a severe curtailment of aerosols, and ongoing land use change, particularly in low latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere ( Riahi et al. 2011 ). The variables used in this study are the soil wetness in the top 10 cm of the soil column, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, near-surface temperature, and relative humidity

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Sanjiv Kumar, James Kinter III, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Zaitao Pan, and Jennifer Adams

the twentieth century “warming hole” in the central United States . J. Climate , 19 , 4137 – 4153 . Leibensperger , E. M. , and Coauthors , 2012 : Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols—Part 2: Climate response . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 12 , 3349 – 3362 . Liang , X.-Z. , J. Pan , J. Zhu , K. E. Kunkel , J. X. L. Wang , and A. Dai , 2006 : Regional climate model downscaling of the U.S. summer climate and future change . J. Geophys. Res. , 111

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Anji Seth, Sara A. Rauscher, Michela Biasutti, Alessandra Giannini, Suzana J. Camargo, and Maisa Rojas

), related changes in the tropical tropospheric stability ( Chou et al. 2001 ; Neelin et al. 2003 ), and the regional effects of aerosols and black carbon ( Lau et al. 2006 ; Meehl et al. 2008 ). Despite the weakening of tropical circulations, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) multimodel climate projections suggested a tendency toward increased monsoon precipitation and increased low-level moisture convergence ( Christensen et al

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Suzana J. Camargo

. (2012) ]. Our analysis includes a historical simulation and two future warming scenarios. The historical simulation is forced with observed atmospheric composition changes (natural and anthropogenic), as well as time-evolving land cover. The historical simulations are available from the mid-nineteenth century to the near present, but we restricted our analysis to the period 1950–2005. For the future scenarios, we chose two projection simulations forced with specified atmospheric concentrations, also

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J. David Neelin, Baird Langenbrunner, Joyce E. Meyerson, Alex Hall, and Neil Berg

produce reductions in precipitation in the subtropics and precipitation increases at mid-to-high latitudes, and California is located in the region between these opposing tendencies ( Meehl et al. 2007 ). California's precipitation is also influenced by large-scale climate variability patterns such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation. To address the effects of complex topography and other locally variable effects on precipitation, a common approach is to

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Gabriel A. Vecchi, Rym Msadek, Whit Anderson, You-Soon Chang, Thomas Delworth, Keith Dixon, Rich Gudgel, Anthony Rosati, Bill Stern, Gabriele Villarini, Andrew Wittenberg, Xiasong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, and Shaoqing Zhang

. Masina , 2011 : Tropical cyclone count forecasting using a dynamical seasonal prediction system: Sensitivity to improved ocean initialization . J. Climate , 24 , 2963 – 2982 . Bender , M. A. , T. R. Knutson , R. E. Tuleya , J. J. Sirutis , G. A. Vecchi , S. T. Garner , and I. M. Held , 2010 : Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes . Science , 327 , 454 – 458 . Booth , B. B. , N. J. Dunstone , P. R. Halloran , T

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Eric D. Maloney, Suzana J. Camargo, Edmund Chang, Brian Colle, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, James Kinter, Benjamin Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Zaitao Pan, Richard Seager, Yolande Serra, Anji Seth, Justin Sheffield, Julienne Stroeve, Jeanne Thibeault, Shang-Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, and Ming Zhao

contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate . Climate Dyn. , 34 ( 7–8 ), 969 – 981 . Lee , S.-K. , D. B. Enfield , and C. Wang , 2011 : Future impact of differential interbasin ocean warming on Atlantic hurricanes . J. Climate , 24 , 1264 – 1275 . Leibensperger , E. M. , and Coauthors , 2012 : Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols—Part 2: Climate response . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 12 , 3349 – 3362 , doi:10.5194/acp-12-3349-2012 . Liang

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Justin Sheffield, Suzana J. Camargo, Rong Fu, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Seon Tae Kim, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Richard Seager, Yolande L. Serra, De-Zheng Sun, Chunzai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, Jin-Yi Yu, Tao Zhang, and Ming Zhao

simulation that is forced by historical estimates of changes in atmospheric composition from natural and anthropogenic sources, volcanoes, greenhouse gases, and aerosols, as well as changes in solar output and land cover. Historical scenario simulations were carried out for the period from the start of the industrial revolution to near present: 1850–2005. Our evaluations are generally carried out for the last 30 yr of the simulations, depending on the type of analysis and the availability of observations

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