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Abby Stevens, Rebecca Willett, Antonios Mamalakis, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Alejandro Tejedor, James T. Randerson, Padhraic Smyth, and Stephen Wright

circulation and the eastern tropical Pacific SSTs, during weak ENSO events, which highlights changes in the tropical Pacific dynamics (see also Mamalakis et al. 2019 ). Whether these changes in precipitation teleconnections and Pacific dynamics are a result of internal multidecadal climate variability or anthropogenic forcing is still not clear. However, to acknowledge the nonstationary nature of the prediction problem, we herein use a weighted loss function that gives more weight to the more recent

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Clément Guilloteau, Antonios Mamalakis, Lawrence Vulis, Phong V. V. Le, Tryphon T. Georgiou, and Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

variables or areas of the studied domain have delayed linear responses to the same signal with different delays. The spectral PCA (sPCA), through the phase (complex argument) information in the complex cross-spectral coefficients, also allows one to handle lagged correlations. Additionally, it offers the possibility to look for modes in specific frequency bands and is particularly potent at extracting wave-type modes and handling propagation effects (nonstationary waves). Many other methods rely on the

Open access