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Yitian Qian, Hiroyuki Murakami, Pang-chi Hsu, and Sarah Kapnick
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Jinyuan Xin, Yuesi Wang, Yuepeng Pan, Dongsheng Ji, Zirui Liu, Tianxue Wen, Yinghong Wang, Xingru Li, Yang Sun, Jie Sun, Pucai Wang, Gehui Wang, Xinming Wang, Zhiyuan Cong, Tao Song, Bo Hu, Lili Wang, Guiqian Tang, Wenkang Gao, Yuhong Guo, Hongyan Miao, Shili Tian, and Lu Wang

CARE-China is the first comprehensive attempt to assess the physical, chemical, and optical properties of atmospheric aerosols across China and their impact on climate change. Aerosols represent an important component of Earth's atmosphere and are composed of solid and liquid particles of varying chemical complexity, size, and phase. The main components of anthropogenic aerosols are sulfate, nitrate, ammonium salt, black carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC) ( Prather et al. 2008 ). Aerosols

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Peter Knippertz, Hugh Coe, J. Christine Chiu, Mat J. Evans, Andreas H. Fink, Norbert Kalthoff, Catherine Liousse, Celine Mari, Richard P. Allan, Barbara Brooks, Sylvester Danour, Cyrille Flamant, Oluwagbemiga O. Jegede, Fabienne Lohou, and John H. Marsham

atmospheric emissions of chemical compounds and aerosols. Figure 2 shows examples of significant sources of air pollution. Already, anthropogenic pollutants are estimated to have tripled in SWA between 1950 and 2000 ( Lamarque et al. 2010 ), with similar, if not larger, increases expected by 2030 ( Liousse et al. 2014 ). These dramatic changes will affect three areas of large socioeconomic importance (see the more detailed discussion in Knippertz et al. 2015 ): Human health on the urban scale : High

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Julia Schmale, Andrea Baccarini, Iris Thurnherr, Silvia Henning, Avichay Efraim, Leighton Regayre, Conor Bolas, Markus Hartmann, André Welti, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Franziska Aemisegger, Christian Tatzelt, Sebastian Landwehr, Robin L. Modini, Fiona Tummon, Jill S. Johnson, Neil Harris, Martin Schnaiter, Alessandro Toffoli, Marzieh Derkani, Nicolas Bukowiecki, Frank Stratmann, Josef Dommen, Urs Baltensperger, Heini Wernli, Daniel Rosenfeld, Martin Gysel-Beer, and Ken S. Carslaw

. 2014 ). Currently, the lack of a well-defined baseline for preindustrial aerosol–cloud interactions introduces large uncertainty in estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing caused by cloud albedo adjustments due to human activity ( Carslaw et al. 2013 ). Hence, studying aerosol and cloud properties and behavior under preindustrial-like aerosol conditions is essential to reduce this uncertainty. Fundamental questions related to the sources and processes of particles that influence cloud albedo

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Ian C. Faloona, Sen Chiao, Arthur J. Eiserloh, Raul J. Alvarez II, Guillaume Kirgis, Andrew O. Langford, Christoph J. Senff, Dani Caputi, Arthur Hu, Laura T. Iraci, Emma L. Yates, Josette E. Marrero, Ju-Mee Ryoo, Stephen Conley, Saffet Tanrikulu, Jin Xu, and Toshihiro Kuwayama

al. 2002 ) and reduced cognitive performance in the elderly ( Zhang et al. 2018 ). Tropospheric ozone originates from both natural and anthropogenic sources and is photochemically produced by the autocatalytic oxidation of carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO x ≡ NO + NO 2 ). Natural sources include direct injection from the stratosphere and secondary production from emissions of nonanthropogenic origins such as biogenic VOCs (BVOC

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Lynn M. Russell, Armin Sorooshian, John H. Seinfeld, Bruce A. Albrecht, Athanasios Nenes, Lars Ahlm, Yi-Chun Chen, Matthew Coggon, Jill S. Craven, Richard C. Flagan, Amanda A. Frossard, Haflidi Jonsson, Eunsil Jung, Jack J. Lin, Andrew R. Metcalf, Robin Modini, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Greg Roberts, Taylor Shingler, Siwon Song, Zhen Wang, and Anna Wonaschütz

E-PEACE analyzed aircraft and satellite measurements to separate the aerosol cloud effects of three synthetic particle sources from dynamical variability. Gaps in our fundamental understanding of cloud processes are the central underlying cause of uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, even in widespread and well-defined systems such as those for marine stratocumulus cloud formation. Atmospheric aerosol levels have increased markedly since the Industrial Revolution. We do not fully

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Christiane Voigt, Ulrich Schumann, Andreas Minikin, Ahmed Abdelmonem, Armin Afchine, Stephan Borrmann, Maxi Boettcher, Bernhard Buchholz, Luca Bugliaro, Anja Costa, Joachim Curtius, Maximilian Dollner, Andreas Dörnbrack, Volker Dreiling, Volker Ebert, Andre Ehrlich, Andreas Fix, Linda Forster, Fabian Frank, Daniel Fütterer, Andreas Giez, Kaspar Graf, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Silke Groß, Katharina Heimerl, Bernd Heinold, Tilman Hüneke, Emma Järvinen, Tina Jurkat, Stefan Kaufmann, Mareike Kenntner, Marcus Klingebiel, Thomas Klimach, Rebecca Kohl, Martina Krämer, Trismono Candra Krisna, Anna Luebke, Bernhard Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Sergej Molleker, Andreas Petzold, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Max Port, Markus Rapp, Philipp Reutter, Christian Rolf, Diana Rose, Daniel Sauer, Andreas Schäfler, Romy Schlage, Martin Schnaiter, Johannes Schneider, Nicole Spelten, Peter Spichtinger, Paul Stock, Adrian Walser, Ralf Weigel, Bernadett Weinzierl, Manfred Wendisch, Frank Werner, Heini Wernli, Martin Wirth, Andreas Zahn, Helmut Ziereis, and Martin Zöger

The ML-CIRRUS experiment deployed the new research aircraft HALO together with satellites and models to gain new insights into nucleation, life cycle, predictability, and climate impact of natural cirrus and anthropogenic contrail cirrus. Cloud probes on the research aicraft HALO during the ML-CIRRUS experiment Cirrus clouds are composed of ice particles and cover about 30% of the midlatitude troposphere ( Wylie and Menzel 1999 ). Cirrus clouds influence climate by increasing the solar albedo

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William J. Merryfield, Johanna Baehr, Lauriane Batté, Emily J. Becker, Amy H. Butler, Caio A. S. Coelho, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Ferranti, Tatiana Ilynia, Arun Kumar, Wolfgang A. Müller, Michel Rixen, Andrew W. Robertson, Doug M. Smith, Yuhei Takaya, Matthias Tuma, Frederic Vitart, Christopher J. White, Mariano S. Alvarez, Constantin Ardilouze, Hannah Attard, Cory Baggett, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Asmerom F. Beraki, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Roberto Bilbao, Felipe M. de Andrade, Michael J. DeFlorio, Leandro B. Díaz, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Sam Grainger, Benjamin W. Green, Momme C. Hell, Johnna M. Infanti, Katharina Isensee, Takahito Kataoka, Ben P. Kirtman, Nicholas P. Klingaman, June-Yi Lee, Kirsten Mayer, Roseanna McKay, Jennifer V. Mecking, Douglas E. Miller, Nele Neddermann, Ching Ho Justin Ng, Albert Ossó, Klaus Pankatz, Simon Peatman, Kathy Pegion, Judith Perlwitz, G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel, Annika Reintges, Christoph Renkl, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Aaron Spring, Cristiana Stan, Y. Qiang Sun, Carly R. Tozer, Nicolas Vigaud, Steven Woolnough, and Stephen Yeager

stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes, in particular on the causes, variability, and trends for the occurrence of SSW events ( Ayarzagüena et al. 2018 ; Simpson et al. 2018 ) and why not all SSW events have similar downward effects (e.g., Garfinkel et al. 2013 ; Maycock and Hitchcock 2015 ). In addition, further research is needed to assess the degree to which prediction models capture both the stratospheric variability and coupling processes. F ig . 2. Forecast probabilities of 13 SSWs that

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T. P. Barnett, K. Hasselmann, M. Chelliah, T. Delworth, G. Hegerl, P. Jones, E. Rasmusson, E. Roeckner, C. Ropelewski, B. Santer, and S. Tett

This paper addresses the question of where we now stand with respect to detection and attribution of an anthropogenic climate signal. Our ability to estimate natural climate variability, against which claims of anthropogenic signal detection must be made, is reviewed. The current situation suggests control runs of global climate models may give the best estimates of natural variability on a global basis, estimates that appear to be accurate to within a factor of 2 or 3 at multidecadal timescales used in detection work.

Present uncertainties in both observations and model-simulated anthropogenic signals in near-surface air temperature are estimated. The uncertainty in model simulated signals is, in places, as large as the signal to be detected. Two different, but complementary, approaches to detection and attribution are discussed in the context of these uncertainties.

Applying one of the detection strategies, it is found that the change in near-surface, June through August air temperature field over the last 50 years is generally different at a significance level of 5% from that expected from model-based estimates of natural variability. Greenhouse gases alone cannot explain the observed change. Two of four climate models forced by greenhouse gases and direct sulfate aerosols produce results consistent with the current climate change observations, while the consistency of the other two depends on which model's anthropogenic fingerprints are used. A recent integration with additional anthropogenic forcings (the indirect effects of sulfate aerosols and tropospheric ozone) and more complete tropospheric chemistry produced results whose signal amplitude and pattern were consistent with current observations, provided the model's fingerprint is used and detection carried out over only the last 30 years of annually averaged data. This single integration currently cannot be corroborated and provides no opportunity to estimate the uncertainties inherent in the results, uncertainties that are thought to be large and poorly known. These results illustrate the current large uncertainty in the magnitude and spatial pattern of the direct and indirect sulfate forcing and climate response. They also show detection statements depend on model-specific fingerprints, time period, and seasonal character of the signal, dependencies that have not been well explored.

Most, but not all, results suggest that recent changes in global climate inferred from surface air temperature are likely not due solely to natural causes. At present it is not possible to make a very confident statement about the relative contributions of specific natural and anthropogenic forcings to observed climate change. One of the main reasons is that fully realistic simulations of climate change due to the combined effects of all anthropogenic and natural forcings mechanisms have yet to be computed. A list of recommendations for reducing some of the uncertainties that currently hamper detection and attribution studies is presented.

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J. E. Penner, R. J. Charlson, J. M. Hales, N. S. Laulainen, R. Leifer, T. Novakov, J. Ogren, L. F. Radke, S. E. Schwartz, and L. Travis

Anthropogenic aerosols are composed of a variety of aerosol types and components including water-soluble inorganic species (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, ammonium), condensed organic species, elemental or black carbon, and mineral dust. Previous estimates of the clear sky forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and by organic biomass-burning aerosols indicate that this forcing is of sufficient magnitude to mask the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases over large regions. Here, the uncertainty in the forcing by these aerosol types is estimated. The clear sky forcing by other anthropogenic aerosol components cannot be estimated with confidence, although the forcing by these aerosol types appears to be smaller than that by sulfate and biomass-burning aerosols.

The cloudy sky forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, wherein aerosol cloud condensation nuclei concentrations are increased, thereby increasing cloud droplet concentrations and cloud albedo and possibly influencing cloud persistence, may also be significant. In contrast to the situation with the clear sky forcing, estimates of the cloudy sky forcing by anthropogenic aerosols are little more than guesses, and it is not possible to quantify the uncertainty of the estimates.

In view of present concerns over greenhouse gas-induced climate change, this situation dictates the need to quantify the forcing by anthropogenic aerosols and to define and minimize uncertainties in the calculated forcings. In this article, a research strategy for improving the estimates of the clear sky forcing is defined. The strategy encompasses five major, and necessarily coordinated, activities: surface-based observations of aerosol chemical and physical properties and their influence on the radiation field; aircraft-based observations of the same properties; process studies to refine model treatments; satellite observations of aerosol abundance and size distribution; and modeling studies to demonstrate consistency between the observations, to provide guidance for determination of the most important parameters, and to allow extension of the limited set of observations to the global scale. Such a strategy, if aggressively implemented, should allow these effects to be incorporated into climate models in the next several years. A similar strategy for defining the magnitude of the cloudy sky forcing should also be possible, but the less firm understanding of this forcing suggests that research of a more exploratory nature be carried out before undertaking a research strategy of the magnitude recommended for the clear sky forcing.

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