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Meng-Pai Hung, Jia-Lin Lin, Wanqiu Wang, Daehyun Kim, Toshiaki Shinoda, and Scott J. Weaver

modulated by intraseasonal variability in the initial state ( Wang et al. 2011 ). As a strong tropical heating source, the MJO also drives teleconnections to the extratropics affecting precipitation events in North and South America (e.g., Mo and Higgins 1998 ; Jones and Schemm 2000 ; Jones et al. 2004 ) through its influence on the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations ( Miller et al. 2003 ; Carvalho et al. 2005 ; L'Heureux and Higgins 2008 ). The MJO also has been suggested as a key source of

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Justin Sheffield, Andrew P. Barrett, Brian Colle, D. Nelun Fernando, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Tong Ren, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Yolande L. Serra, Anji Seth, Jeanne M. Thibeault, Julienne C. Stroeve, Ze Yang, and Lei Yin

at daily to seasonal time scales, as well as selected climate features that have regional importance. Part II covers aspects of climate variability, such as intraseasonal variability in the tropical Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which play major roles in driving North American climate variability. This study draws from individual work by investigators within the CMIP5 Task Force of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Eric D. Maloney, Suzana J. Camargo, Edmund Chang, Brian Colle, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, James Kinter, Benjamin Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Zaitao Pan, Richard Seager, Yolande Serra, Anji Seth, Justin Sheffield, Julienne Stroeve, Jeanne Thibeault, Shang-Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, and Ming Zhao

show increases in snowpack along the Arctic Rim by 2100 (e.g., Brown and Mote 2009 ), particularly at the height of the winter season, even though the length of the snow season shortens (e.g., Räisänen 2008 ). The projected response of NA climate in future emission scenarios is often more nuanced on the regional and local scales than for the continental-scale features, especially when considering the evolution during the seasonal cycle. For example, Rauscher et al. (2008) noted an earlier onset

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Jeanne M. Thibeault and Anji Seth

summer precipitation in the southeastern United States . J. Climate , 19 , 613 – 621 . Enfield , D. B. , A. M. Mestas-Nunez , and P. J. Trimble , 2001 : The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 28 , 2077 – 2080 , doi:10.1029/2000GL012745 . Francis , J. A. , and S. J. Vavrus , 2012 : Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 39, L

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David E. Rupp, Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, and David A. Robinson

attribution has been applied to zonal mean precipitation patterns (e.g., Lambert et al. 2005 ), surface temperature extremes (e.g., Tebaldi et al. 2006 ; Stott et al. 2011 ), ocean heat content ( Barnett et al. 2005 ), Arctic sea ice ( Min et al. 2008 ), western U.S. hydroclimate ( Barnett et al. 2008 ; Pierce et al. 2008 ), northern and southern annular modes ( Gillett et al. 2005 ), and more. A related approach, fractional attributable risk, has been applied to specific extreme events like the 2003

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Justin Sheffield, Suzana J. Camargo, Rong Fu, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Seon Tae Kim, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Richard Seager, Yolande L. Serra, De-Zheng Sun, Chunzai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, Jin-Yi Yu, Tao Zhang, and Ming Zhao

easterly summer-mean flow (>4 m s −1 ). This suggests that realistic representation of the mean state could be crucial for improved simulations of the EP ISV, which is in agreement with a recent study by Rydbeck et al. (2013) , and has also been discussed for Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean (e.g., Kim et al. 2009 ). One hypothesis is that a realistic mean state produces the correct sign of surface flux anomalies relative to intraseasonal

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