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Hanoi Medina, Di Tian, Fabio R. Marin, and Giovanni B. Chirico

to spatial inconsistencies at the boundaries between tiles ( Hamill and Whitaker 2006 ; Hamill et al. 2006 ). However, this is not an issue present in this study. Leave-one-out cross validation are carried out by excluding the current year from the list of potential analogs. For a detailed description and theoretical basis of the analog method, the readers can refer to Hamill and Whitaker (2006) . 2) Logistic regression method In the logistic regression (LR) method a nonlinear function is

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