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M. Issa Lélé, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

study, the VIMFs are derived using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. From the viewpoint of moisture transport, this is a valuable resource to study interannual variability in the hydrologic cycle, with the possibility of using several decades of data. Attention is given to the phases of WAM life cycle, from buildup and onset to maturity and withdrawal. The goal is to understand better the relation between large-scale atmospheric circulation, moisture flux and associated convergence, and precipitation

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Zewdu T. Segele, Michael B. Richman, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

rainfall, its seasonal prediction is of great importance for agricultural planning and socioeconomic disaster mitigation. Several previous studies have examined aspects of the intraseasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopian rainfall. These studies have considered the following: Kiremt onset, cessation, and resulting growing season variability ( Segele and Lamb 2005 ); the abrupt latitudinal rainfall changes involved and their representation in climate model simulations ( Riddle and Cook 2008

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Elinor R. Martin and Chris Thorncroft

; Pasch et al. 1998 ). It has been suggested that variability in AEW activity (number, intensity, physical, and dynamical characteristics) impacts TCs, as AEWs can act as preexisting cyclonic circulations or seeds for Atlantic TCs (e.g., Burpee 1972 ; Avila and Pasch 1992 ; Thorncroft and Hodges 2001 ) and vary on time scales from days to decades (e.g., Carlson 1969 ; Hopsch et al. 2007 ; Martin and Thorncroft 2014 ). Thus, if we are to make accurate projections of future Atlantic TC changes, we

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Lisa Hannak, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anke Kniffka, and Gregor Pante

importantly precipitation over a large area. Monsoonal rainfall affects the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people through its impacts on agriculture, health, water resources, and power generation. The large interannual to decadal variations of the WAM can have catastrophic consequences for the local population ( Benson and Clay 1998 ; Nicholson 2001 ). Therefore, a reliable weather, seasonal, and decadal climate prediction is crucial for many planning activities across the region. Despite these

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Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

stronger divergence aloft are consistent with the regions of warmer SSTs. The TC development is associated with divergence aloft, coupled with heating of the air columns over the warmer sea surface. Although ENSO clearly affects Philippine TC activity, especially the locations of cyclogenesis during La Niña events, the variability of Philippine TC activity cannot solely be attributed to ENSO. Other climate modes [e.g., the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] also

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