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Seth Saslo and Steven J. Greybush

events by altering wind fields and creating local orographic lift ( Onton and Steenburgh 2001 ; Alcott and Steenburgh 2013 ). This can result in localized precipitation enhancement ( Veals and Steenburgh 2015 ), although the mechanisms associated with this are still under investigation ( Minder et al. 2015 ; Campbell et al. 2016 ). It follows that an accurate LES precipitation forecast needs to account for large-scale synoptic forcing, as well as local features and mesoscale variables. As a result

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Daniel T. Eipper, Steven J. Greybush, George S. Young, Seth Saslo, Todd D. Sikora, and Richard D. Clark

extends farther inland than its thermodynamic forcing. This pattern suggests a Lagrangian evolution of the band’s mesoscale circulation in which the thermal contrast across the band (i.e., the thermal forcing) equilibrates sooner than does the kinematic response, as can be expected from conservation of momentum. Notwithstanding this temporal/spatial lag, the kinematic circulation nevertheless weakens with distance inland so that the band’s reflecitivity structure is eventually dominated by upper

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Daniel T. Eipper, George S. Young, Steven J. Greybush, Seth Saslo, Todd D. Sikora, and Richard D. Clark

wind shear, CBL depth, and synoptic-scale forcing ( Holroyd 1971 ; Niziol 1987 ; Byrd et al. 1991 ; Niziol et al. 1995 ; Ballentine et al. 1998 ; Campbell et al. 2016 ). An important focus of recent research has been the often-dramatic enhancement of lake-effect snowfall over the Tug Hill Plateau, which lies east of Lake Ontario (e.g., Veals and Steenburgh 2015 ). The recent Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign from December 2013 to January 2014 ( Kristovich et al. 2017

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