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Kirstin Kober
and
George C. Craig

2006 ). Multiple integrations of NWP models (ensembles) can be used to provide probabilistic information but can be set up in different ways, depending on the represented sources of uncertainty. Recent studies have shown that in different weather regimes, different sources of uncertainty dominate: in cases of strong large-scale forcing, initial and boundary conditions uncertainty contributes more to the overall uncertainty, whereas in weak large-scale forcing, model error is more important

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