Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 317 items for :

  • Forecasting x
  • Weather, Climate, and Society x
  • Refine by Access: Content accessible to me x
Clear All
Victoria Reyes-García, Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, Maximilien Guèze, and Sandrine Gallois

connection between stargazing and potato planting among Quechua and Aymara farmers. Orlove and his colleagues found that farmers in Peru and Bolivia forecasted the most auspicious time to plant potatoes by looking, around mid-June, at the brightness, apparent size, and position of the Pleiades, one of the brightest star clusters in the Taurus constellation. The dimmer the Pleiades, as determined by their apparent size and brilliance, the less rain in the area to be expected 6 months later. Based on such

Full access
Tamara U. Wall, Timothy J. Brown, and Nicholas J. Nauslar

1. Introduction In this paper, we report—using results from qualitative, in-depth interviews with fire practitioners and forecasters—exploration of use of spot weather forecasts (SWFs) by fire practitioners (e.g., burn bosses, incident commanders, and fire management officers) for prescribed burns (utilized as vegetation management treatments). In the United States, prescribed fires on state and federal lands follow a fire prescription plan, which details parameters and implementation

Full access
Jessica N. Burgeno and Susan L. Joslyn

1. Introduction Forecasts for major weather events often begin days in advance. The weather models upon which forecasts are based produce predictions that are updated periodically, generally changing and growing more accurate on average as lead times decrease ( Lazo et al. 2009 ; Wilson and Giles 2013 ). However, when more recent model predictions contradict previous forecasts, meteorologists must decide whether or not to update the forecast they provide to the public. Sometimes they are

Restricted access
Antony Millner

1. Introduction The construction of models that attempt to ascertain the economic value of weather and climate forecasts has a long history in meteorology and allied fields ( Katz and Murphy 1997 ). Such valuation models are necessary if we are to understand when a particular set of forecasts might be favorably applied to a given decision problem, and they also play an important role in legitimizing meteorological research in wider society, particularly to funding bodies ( Pielke and Carbone

Full access
Katie A. Wilson, Pamela L. Heinselman, Patrick S. Skinner, Jessica J. Choate, and Kim E. Klockow-McClain

1. Introduction Uncertainty is inherent in forecasts of any natural system, including the weather. The limited predictability of the atmosphere and the resulting initial value problem thus calls for an ensemble of numerical weather predictions that can provide probabilistic forecast information ( Bauer et al. 2015 ). Advancements in scientific understanding, computing resources, and observations have led to the development of operational numerical weather prediction systems that span the

Full access
Chen Su, Jessica N. Burgeno, and Susan Joslyn

contained in forecasts can influence not only everyday decisions but also critical decisions related to personal safety. However, making weather forecast information more accessible to the public does not necessarily lead to better public understanding. Although mobile-device-based weather applications (“apps”) provide abundant and timely forecasts, few provide guidance on how people should interpret and use the information ( Zabini 2016 ). In addition, there can be inconsistency in forecasts for the

Restricted access
D. H. Cobon, R. Darbyshire, J. Crean, S. Kodur, M. Simpson, and C. Jarvis

). Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) may help to inform adjustments of stocking rates to match expected seasonal outcomes through minimizing losses in poor years and maximizing profits in good years ( Cobon et al. 2017 ; Crean et al. 2015 ; Hayman et al. 2007 ; McIntosh et al. 2005 ). In reviewing the value of SCFs in Australian agriculture Parton et al. (2019) found a wide range of values but the majority were positive. Since the early 1980s, when the role of SCFs in agriculture was first recognized

Open access
Ana Lopez and Sophie Haines

1. Introduction In recent years, the quantitatively measurable skill of weather forecasts continues to improve according to metrics that show model developers and forecasters that models have a “basic” level of skill that is constantly increasing ( Bauer et al. 2015 ). However, the question of whether these forecasts are usable for water resources management also relies on other, nontechnical, factors. Previous studies have explored the potential for probabilistic numerical weather forecasts

Full access
Todd A. Crane, Carla Roncoli, Joel Paz, Norman Breuer, Kenneth Broad, Keith T. Ingram, and Gerrit Hoogenboom

1. Introduction Translating climate forecasts into relevant knowledge for agricultural decision making requires sound, demand-driven science; timely and appropriate delivery; and responsive management systems. Understanding responsive management systems is particularly important, because they incorporate factors that cannot be controlled by those producing and disseminating scientific information (such as by redirecting the research agenda or fine-tuning the communication process). This paper

Full access
Julie L. Demuth, Jeffrey K. Lazo, and Rebecca E. Morss

1. Introduction Weather forecasts are a common part of people’s lives in the United States, with millions of individuals obtaining forecasts daily and using them in a variety of decisions ( Lazo et al. 2009 , hereafter LMD09 ). Recent surveys find that approximately half of the U.S. public reports following weather news “very closely,” with “no other topic generat[ing] close to this level of interest” ( Pew Research Center 2008 , p. 39). Weather information providers offer a variety of

Full access