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Thomas H. A. Frame, John Methven, Nigel M. Roberts, and Helen A. Titley

1. Introduction Ensemble forecasting aims to characterize forecast uncertainty associated with the growth of small uncertainties in the initial conditions of the forecast ( Molteni et al. 1996 ). A natural interpretation of an ensemble forecasting system is as an estimator of the probability of occurrence of future weather events of interest ( Leith 1974 ); for example, in the case of flood prediction, what is the chance of rainfall accumulation exceeding a particular critical threshold value

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David M. Schultz and Joseph M. Sienkiewicz

Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) SeaWinds microwave scatterometer on the research Quick Scatterometer polar-orbiting satellite (QuikSCAT; e.g., Hoffman and Leidner 2005 ). QuikSCAT was successfully used by marine forecasters to determine extratropical cyclone intensity and wind warning categories for over 10 years from 1999 through November 2009 (e.g., Von Ahn et al. 2005 , 2006 ; Chelton et al. 2006 ). Fig . 1. QuikSCAT imagery of horizontal wind speed and direction at 0730–0733 UTC 8 Dec

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