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Megan L. White and J. Anthony Stallins

1. Introduction Severe thunderstorm warnings (SVTs) are issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) when convective outbreaks are capable of producing hail with a diameter of 1 in. or greater, and/or winds at speeds of 58 mph or greater. Accurate warnings are essential for alerting affected areas that human and property risk are elevated, and that appropriate precautions should be taken. Meteorologists at local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) of the NWS rely on Doppler radar and computer

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Mark A. Casteel

Region in 2012. The NIST report, in particular, highlighted the need for a warning process that significantly enhances public perception of personal risk and promotes a rapid and effective public response. Given this “call to action,” a new, enhanced warning product known as an impact-based warning (IBW) was designed with the specific intent to improve risk communication by using expanded and more specific wording concerning the hazard, source, and impact of the forecast storm that clearly identified

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Antony Millner

1. Introduction The construction of models that attempt to ascertain the economic value of weather and climate forecasts has a long history in meteorology and allied fields ( Katz and Murphy 1997 ). Such valuation models are necessary if we are to understand when a particular set of forecasts might be favorably applied to a given decision problem, and they also play an important role in legitimizing meteorological research in wider society, particularly to funding bodies ( Pielke and Carbone

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Dennis Cavanaugh, Melissa Huffman, Jennifer Dunn, and Mark Fox

decisions, but also on the decisions leading up to the event, which can be heavily influenced by information provided (or not provided) before the disaster occurs ( Nigg 1995 ). 2. Data and methodology To perform a quantitative analysis of communications within the north Texas IWT (hereinafter simply referred to as the IWT) during this event, the groups that compose the IWT had to be formally defined. In this study, the IWT is composed of four primary groups: the National Weather Service Forecast Office

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Adam M. Rainear, Kenneth A. Lachlan, and Carolyn A. Lin

began naming both low-pressure and high-pressure systems in 1954, using female names for lows and male names for highs, to track synoptic weather systems more easily ( Institut für Meteorologie 2017 ). The Buffalo NWS forecast office has also named past storms after constellations, famous scientists, and breeds of cow (see Lake Storm Aphid; Poloncarz 2010 ). More recently, NWS has named storms in a post hoc fashion, and media organizations have even created online polls ( Freedman 2010 ), which has

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Talardia Gbangou, Erik Van Slobbe, Fulco Ludwig, Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic, and Spyridon Paparrizos

attributed to smallholder farmers ( Barnett et al. 2017 ). These farmers predominantly rely on rainwater for agricultural production. This dependence on rains makes the region vulnerable to climate change and variability such as shifts in onset of rains and amounts of seasonal rainfall and dry spell occurrences ( Owusu and Waylen 2009 ; Yaro 2013 ; Gbangou et al. 2019 ). As a result, local farmers struggle to meet food and income security. Improved and tailored forecast information on weather and

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Kevin Werner, Kristen Averyt, and Gigi Owen

opportunity functions. The scenario A results demonstrate the importance planning for instances where the tail of the forecast distribution is realized. Future work could employ a decision support tool to demonstrate effective management techniques that plan for the contingency realized in scenario A. Those results could be used together with this exercise to more rigorously test the use of decision support tools but also to demonstrate their value to future exercise participants. Our study shows

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Julie L. Demuth, Jeffrey K. Lazo, and Rebecca E. Morss

, the NWS data are nationwide and publicly available, and most weather providers use data and techniques similar to NWS’s. We selected error statistics from those available in the NWS Public Verification Point Forecast Matrix verification dataset ( NWS 2009 ), one for measuring accuracy of maximum temperature forecasts and one for chance of precipitation forecasts. We chose these two forecast parameters because LMD09 show they are highly important to people. For temperature forecast error, we used

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Tamara U. Wall, Timothy J. Brown, and Nicholas J. Nauslar

1. Introduction In this paper, we report—using results from qualitative, in-depth interviews with fire practitioners and forecasters—exploration of use of spot weather forecasts (SWFs) by fire practitioners (e.g., burn bosses, incident commanders, and fire management officers) for prescribed burns (utilized as vegetation management treatments). In the United States, prescribed fires on state and federal lands follow a fire prescription plan, which details parameters and implementation

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Chen Su, Jessica N. Burgeno, and Susan Joslyn

accumulation. Indeed, participants were significantly more likely to close schools when the forecasts were inconsistent. Granted the tight control of extraneous variables and systematic manipulation of experimental variables exercised here resulted in some loss to ecological validity. In addition, this was a vastly simplified decision task compared to its real-world counterpart. However, these techniques allowed us to make a direct comparison between the impact of consistency and accuracy on trust and

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